AN UNSPOKEN FEAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT

Amidst all the coverage of the current Israeli-Iranian conflict, there is an unspoken fear which is not being discussed. It is unspoken, but it is a real possibility. Before discussing it, let’s look at an update of the current conflict’s situation. Iranian ballistic missiles continue to hit Israel with recent targets including high-tech centers in Beersheva and key facilities in the port city of Haifa (first link and second link). Israel continues to unleash its air force against a seemingly endless supply of nuclear and military sites in Iran (third link and fourth link). President Trump has given Iran two weeks to meet Trump’s demands about dismantling Iran’s nuclear program. I don’t think Trump is bluffing. Trump earlier gave Iran 60 days to negotiate a deal to avoid a conflict. Iran ignored his deadline, so on day 61 Israel was unleashed to attack Iran. That tells me Iran ought to pay attention to Trump’s current two-week deadline.

I think that the Israeli air force is doing what it has wanted to do for many years: have a free hand in doing maximum damage to Iran’s military and nuclear facilities via intensive air attacks. On the other hand, I will acknowledge that more Iranian ballistic missiles have penetrated Israeli air defenses to hit Israel than I expected would be the case. As combat grows more intense between Israel and Iran, any negotiated peace settlement seems steadily less likely. Also, both President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu have categorically pledged that Iran cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons. This indicates both leaders wold have to agree that Iran’s nuclear program has been destroyed for the conflict to end.

There is a wild card happening in the Mideast conflict which could have an unknown effect on it. China is flying large wide-bodied jets full of cargo from China to Iran (fifth link). What is China sending to Iran? China is an ally of Iran so it is logical that China is sending something militarily useful to Iran. It is possible that China is sending newly-developed Chinese air defense systems to Iran to see if they can be successful in downing Israeli warplanes and regaining control of Iran’s skies. China may have new weaponry which it wants to test in combat conditions and the Israeli-Iranian war allows just such a thing to happen. China may want to test such new weaponry vs. Israeli/Western technology to see if works or not. If so, the results of such tests could determine whether China decides to attack Taiwan. As an aside, it does strike me that Taiwan has been lackadaisical about obtaining or building weaponry to resist a Chinese invasion and the USA has been very slow about shipping weaponry to Taiwan (even weaponry Taiwan has already paid for). I’m sure the Mossad and the CIA are very interested in finding out what China is sending to Iran at this time.

Now let’s examine the unspoken fear that exists in the Mideast conflict which no one want to discuss. I believe readers of this blog deserve to know about this risk so I will address it directly. Israel has long stated that it will use “any means necessary” to ensure the survival of the Jewish state in the Mideast . This position has been shared by prime ministers of a number of Israeli political parties that have existed over the decades. Since Israel was founded under extremely threatening circumstances, Israeli leaders understood from the beginning of the Jewish nation after World War II that nuclear weapons were the “trump card” in any nation’s ability to defend itself militarily. It has long been assumed that Israel has been producing nuclear weapons of all sizes for decades. The Israeli nuclear plant at Dimona is far too small to produce more than a few nuclear weapons so Israel has to have another source for nuclear weapons development.

On a TV Cable News channel yesterday, I saw a commentator pointing to a world map which identified those nations with nuclear weapons and the approximate number of nuclear warheads each nation had. That commentator estimated that Israel had 90 nuclear weapons at the present time. The sixth link and seventh link offer many different estimates regarding how many nukes Israel actually has. As you will see, estimate range from 80 nuclear warheads to 400 nuclear warheads. Israel’s arsenal of nuclear weapons would include major city-killer warheads, medium-sized warheads for mid-range targets and very small nuclear warheads for tactical targets. The eighth link is a post I wrote in 2009 about Israel’s growing nuclear-capable submarine fleet. Even that 16 year-old post referenced the long-standing Iranian desire to “wipe Israel off the map.” That post focused on the likely Israeli ability to fit nuclear warheads to the cruise missiles that could be fired from Israeli subs. Those warheads would have to be small to fit on a submarine’s surface-to-surface missiles (such as a Tomahawk missile). Such down-sizing of the warheads’ size is not difficult. My previous posts have occasionally mentioned that the USA developed very small tactical nukes in the 1950s. There was a nuclear warhead that could be fitted to an artillery shell (called the Long Tom) and one so small it could be fired by a heavy mortar (called the Davy Crockett). Given the USA could do that in the 1950s, you can be sure Israel has been able to manufacture small tactical nuclear warheads for decades. I don’t doubt that Israel has both large and small nuclear warheads for all kinds of purposes and that they can be delivered via ballistic missiles, cruise missiles or jet aircraft.

It must be realized that while Israel and the USA are working closely together in this current crisis, Israel is not bound by any US agreement with Iran. Israel will do what it thinks it must do to survive. The “any means necessary” part of Israel’s determination to survive includes the first-use of nuclear weapons. There is much media discussion of whether President Trump will give the order to hit Iran’s deeply-buried nuclear site with super bunker-buster bombs. There is no guarantee that they will be enough to destroy the Iranian nuclear program as that Iranian base is hidden deep inside the side of a mountain. If a US attack does not destroy the Iranian base or if Trump decides not to attack Iran’s nuclear program (a direct reversal of his oft-stated position), Israel will decide how to finish the destruction of that key Iranian nuclear facility.

I don’t doubt Israel would prefer to find a non-nuclear way to destroy or neutralize all key Iranian nuclear facilities (I’m sure they have worked on such options for many years), but if all else fails, Israel can destroy the Iranian nuclear program by using its nuclear arsenal, selecting an appropriately-sized nuclear warhead for each Iranian nuclear facility that needs to be eliminated. The USA used two city-killer nuclear weapons to forcefully end World War II. Israel could likely end this current conflict with Iran by using considerably smaller nukes on remaining nuclear facilities. The world needs to realize that the Jews lived through one attempt to annihilate them during World War II, and that they are now utterly committed to making sure nothing like that ever happens again. An Iranian nuclear program close to reaching its end-point directly threatens the Jewish people with a new Holocaust. I think we can be sure that Israel’s National Security leaders regularly discuss how close Iran is getting to finishing its nuclear program–making it necessary for Israel to use “any means necessary” to stop them. An Israeli first-use of nuclear weapons to ensure the survival of the Jewish state is the risk no one wants to publicly discuss, but it is a real risk. Perhaps President Trump will decide to use bunker-buster bombs against deeply-buried Iranian nuclear facilities to prevent a necessary Israeli use of nuclear weapons to accomplish the same thing.

The Apostle Paul prophesied that in the latter days, “perilous times shall come” (II Timothy 3:1). He has been proven right. We are in such times already.

AN UNSPOKEN FEAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT

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