WILL TURKISH TROOPS BE POSTED AT THE ISRAELI BORDER?

As readers likely realize, President Trump wants the Gaza “Peace Process” (such as it is) to move into Stage Two of a preliminary outline released some time ago. One condition of Stage One was the release to Israel of all the living hostages and the remains of deceased hostages. The last report I read indicated that one deceased Israeli hostage has not yet been accounted for. The Israeli government is adamant that it will not move to Stage Two of the peace process until that hostage’s remains are found and returned. However, this post will focus on a very large obstacle to the Peace Process that will surely come to the fore whenever the process moves to Stage Two.

When outlines of the Peace Process were announced, there were four “guarantors” of the process which were formally announced: The USA, Egypt, Turkey and Qatar. The USA and Egypt are logical Guarantors to the process. Turkey is not at all logical and Qatar is questionable. If Turkey is one of the forces which contributes troops to be positioned in Gaza adjacent to Israeli troops in the allocation of occupation zones in Gaza, expect major delays in the entire Peace Process. Indeed, the entire Peace Process could collapse, and a new agreement will need to be negotiated.

Turkey’s leader, President Erdogan, seems to be focused on rebuilding the old Ottoman Empire once ruled from Turkey, even as President Putin seems determined to rebuild the Soviet Union with Russia ruling over its once subordinate entities–such as Ukraine. Turkey may see an opportunity to expand Turkey’s military role in the Mideast by placing its troops in a Gaza reconstruction zone–proximate to Israeli troops in the Gaza region. I think this would be utterly unacceptable to Israel, and Israel would have very good reasons to veto such a development.

To begin with, Israel does not see either Turkey or Qatar as honest brokers in the Gaza Peace Process. It sees both nations as being aligned with Hamas. Remember that Israeli warplanes attacked some buildings in Qatar that were thought to be sheltering Hamas leaders? That was a very risky move by Israel as President Trump has had positive relations with Qatari leaders. I’m sure that action by Israel resulted in some “very candid” words being exchanged between American and Israeli diplomats. Indeed, Prime Minister Netanyahu may have received an angry call from President Trump over that action.

Media reports have stated that Qatar has hosted Hamas’ leaders, which does indicate Qatar does not have an even-handed position in the Gaza talks regarding Phase Two in the Peace Process. However, Turkey is in a special category in terms of being an unacceptable “Guarantor” in Phase Two of the Peace Process. During the Gaza war provoked by Hamas’ cruel invasion of Israeli towns on October 7, 2023, Turkey actually threatened to send troops to “invade Israel.” The second through fifth links offer media reports on this Turkish threat which was not widely reported in the American press. Obviously, if Turkey had made such an attack against the Israelis, it would have been a disastrous decision by Erdogan. Turkey is not a nuclear-armed nation; Israel is. If a very large conventional power (such as Turkey) invaded a small, nuclear-armed nation (i.e. Israel), Turkey is guaranteed to lose.

Israel would, without question, use nuclear weapons on any invader if it becomes necessary to preserve its survival. To me, it seems that Erdogan’s threat to invade Israel was one of the more intemperate remarks made by any world leader recently. When Israeli ears heard Erdogan’s threat, you can be sure that Israeli generals made contingency plans for what targets in Turkey would be first hit by Israeli nukes if Turkey actually acted so foolishly as to invade Israel. Since Turkey is a member of NATO, I suspect NATO leaders contacted Erdogan to back off of his inflammatory statement. Turkey cannot invoke Article 5 of NATO’s Charter in any war Turkey starts vs. Israel. NATO’s Article 5 can be invoked when NATO member-nations are attacked by non-NATO nations in a defensive context. If Turkey is the invader/ aggressor in a war, it cannot expect any NATO help.

In my opinion, Turkey wants to have Turkish troops occupy part of Gaza close to Israeli territory so it can precipitate an “incident” that “requires” Turkey to militarily engage the Israelis. In my opinion, the world would see this as a Turkish ruse–especially after Erdogan already publicly announced a desire to “invade” Israel. Fearing a Turkish excuse to start a war if Turkish troops were stationed in Gaza, I think that Israel would most emphatically veto any presence of Turkish troops in Gaza due to Turkey’s (and Erdogan’s) pro-Hamas stance in the past. I do not know what nations would be acceptable to both Israel and Hamas, but I do think American and Egyptian troops/policemen would be acceptable to both sides. Other candidate nations could be Indonesia and Morocco. Both are Islamic (acceptable to Hamas) but neither has any territorial aspirations in the Gaza/Mideast situation (acceptable to Israel). Another nation which could be acceptable would be Azerbaijan, an Islamic nation with historically friendly relations with Israel. Also, Azerbaijan’s leader has good relations with President Trump who midwifed a peace accord between Armenia and Azerbaijan earlier this year. The U.A.E. is another possible nation that might be acceptable to both parties.

While we hope for peace in the Mideast region, there is still a chance that war could again erupt between Israel and Hamas. Hamas may be preparing for that eventuality as I did hear a media report that Hamas was rearming itself via flying drones carrying weapons which are being flown to Hamas across the Egyptian-Hamas border. There is no guarantee that Phase Two will be implemented acceptably to both sides.

From a biblical perspective, this situation still has a strong connection to a recent blog I posted on Zephaniah 2’s profound applicability to modern geopolitical realities in the Mideast. President Erdogan of Turkey “tipped his hand” regarding Turkey’s goals to greatly weaken Israel if Turkey can get its troops inserted unto Gaza. Because Erdogan has openly announced his intention to “invade Israel,” Turkey cannot be an honest participant in any Phase Two implementation plan to place peacekeeping troops into Gaza. Erdogan’s stated intention to invade Israeli borders fulfills Zephaniah 2:8-11 that God will intervene to oppose nations who exalt themselves against the borders of Judah (the latter-day Jews/Israelis). if Turkey was allowed to insert its troops into Gaza, it would create situation where a “hair-trigger” alert status would exist continuously. If Phase Two of an Israeli-Hamas peace plan ever gets implemented, nations furnishing peace-keeping troops into Gaza will need to be acceptable to both Israel and Hamas. The sixth link offers an additional analysis of the currently very complex situation in the Mideast. It discusses how difficult it will be to reach any agreement acceptable to both Israel and Gaza.

WILL TURKISH TROOPS BE POSTED AT THE ISRAELI BORDER?

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