WILL RUSSIA PROVOKE WORLD WAR III BY ATTACKING NATO?

There have been warnings in media reports that Russia may seek to widen the war in Ukraine by attacking NATO and, thereby, starting World War III. Is this possible or likely? It is possible, but it is my view that the Russian military and the Russian people are in no condition to launch a huge new war against the many nations of NATO while Russian forces are being chewed up in Ukraine. Given Russia’s immense losses of weaponry and personnel in the Ukraine War, I do not think it is likely that Russia will provoke a World War III vs. NATO.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, it was an example of a nuclear power invading a nation that had only conventional weapons. If Russia provoked a war with NATO, Russia would be attacking an alliance which has three nations with nuclear weapons. The US has a huge supply of nuclear weapons with all kinds of yields and the United Kingdom and France have enough nuclear weaponry to end Russia’s effectiveness as a functioning nation. However, logic does not always prevail in major power confrontations involving possible warfare. Consider World War I: the major combatants were not desirous of any war starting, but were plunged into a very long and costly war after an obscure assassination occurred in the Balkans. Treaties were invoked and nations were forced into warfare due to treaty requirements.

Nevertheless, tensions are continuing (or even worsening) between Russia and NATO. Russia is assumed to be responsible for many unidentified drone sightings in various parts of Europe, and Russian ships are the likely cause of damages to underseas cables belonging to NATO nations. It is believable to say Russia is already harassing NATO nations.

The nations most at risk from a Russian threat are the Baltic nations of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia as well as Eastern European nations such as Poland. All these nations are “getting serious” about their own defense. The first link and second link are about efforts in the Baltic nations to prepare to halt or slow Russian invasions of their nations. If attacked, they would surely invoke Article 5 of the NATO treaty and all other NATO nations would be obligated to go to war vs. Russia. It would be a litmus test of how committed the NATO nations are to each other if this happens. It would especially be watched to see if such nations as Hungary and Turkey honored their NATO obligations. Turkey’s location on the Bosporus and Dardanelles makes it especially important. It has the strategic location to sink Russian ships transiting between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea during warfare.

Poland, which has been crushed by either German or Russian invasions in the past, is determined to be able to defend itself in any future Russian invasion. The third link details Poland’s scrambling fighter jets when Russian military strikes vs. Ukraine get too close.

The fourth link reports on sentiments within some NATO nations that NATO ought to strike first against Russia. I don’t see that happening for two major reason: (A) NATO is a defensive alliance; if some NATO nations attack Russia first, I don’t think they can invoke Article 5 to compel other NATO nations to join them, and (B) If some NATO nations attack Russia, Belarus will almost certainly wage war vs. NATO nations as an ally of Russia. What is badly needed is a ceasefire or peace agreement to stop the war Russia started vs. Ukraine. As long as heavy fighting continues between those two nations, there is a chance the war could spread to include additional nations.

The fifth link and sixth link give an indication of how fierce the fighting is on the Russian-Ukrainian front. Both offer estimates of battle losses in heavy weaponry and personnel lost in the war. These links report that Russia has suffered over a million casualties among its uniformed personnel. That total includes both killed and wounded soldiers and sailors. Most estimates indicate that Ukrainian casualty totals are about half those of Russia. The fifth link includes Russian-language paragraphs so I assume the totals in the fifth link include some Russian sources. These losses are unsustainable. The Russian people must be very weary of this war and its incredibly high costs. Knowing how brutal it is to live under Russian dominion, Ukraine has no choice but to fight on. Russia thought it would win the war in a few days or weeks, but was shocked when Ukrainian resistance was so fierce. Ukraine has made very strategic advances in the use of drone warfare, in both long-range and short- range applications, during this war. Hopefully, they are sharing their drone skills and technology with NATO nations already.

Let’s look closer at Poland’s aggressive military force expansions. I have previously written in my blog about Poland’s acquisition of large numbers of warplanes, tanks and artillery from South Korea. The seventh link and eighth link offer considerable detail that South Korea is a reliable defense contractor which can deliver large quantities of weapons within a short time. Dwelling under the constant threat of North Korea, South Korea has had to develop its own domestic weapons programs and these are so extensive that they can export weapons to other nations to keep their own assembly lines of weapons running continuously. These links report that South Korea has already made and delivered Poland’s order for many self-propelled, armored artillery units. Main battle tanks and warplanes are also coming from South Korea to Poland.

The eighth link is somewhat of an advertisement for South Korea’s weapons industry, but it is still very informative as most people do not realize South Korea has become a major weapons supplier to other nations. That link reports that Finland, Estonia and Norway are also obtaining South Korean heavy weaponry, meaning that these imported South Korean weapons must already be made to NATO specifications for easy interoperability when/if NATO has to go to war. The link reports that so many South Korean heavy weapons have been delivered to Poland that Poland will now make these South Korean weapons locally in Poland under licenses from South Korea. South Korea’s status as a major arms provider to at least four NATO nations have made South Korea a de facto ally of the NATO nations.

Poland is serious about winning any conventional war with Russia. Poland is also very conscious that it might have to fight on two fronts if a NATO-Russian war broke out. It would have to fight not only Belorussian/Russian forces on its east border, but also Russian forces in the Kaliningrad enclave bordering Poland on the north. In my opinion, Poland is the European nation most ready to fight against a Russian invasion. If war breaks out with Russia, Poland will not have to fight alone. It will have major reinforcements from NATO nations almost as soon as any such war starts.

Biblical prophecy informs us that there will be a major World War III raging as our age comes to a close with the intervention of a heavenly army under Jesus Christ. Indeed, Matthew 24:37 tells us that this heavenly intervention will occur earlier than expected in the Bible’s timetable of end-time events in order to save “all flesh” on earth from becoming extinct. Those wishing to review a synthesis of all the biblical prophecies about the latter-day world war which is prophesied to occur are invited to read my research report: What Ezekiel 38-39 Reveals About a Future World War III. I do not think that this final war is yet imminent as other major biblical events (the fall of the modern “Babylon the Great” political/financial system, Revelation 17-18), and the arrival of God’s Two Witnesses with miraculous powers delegated to them, Revelation 11) have not yet occurred. Interested readers can go the Articles tab at the home page of my website, stevenmcollins.com, to locate articles on both these topics.

WILL RUSSIA PROVOKE WORLD WAR III BY ATTACKING NATO?

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