TURKEY VS. GREECE AND ISRAEL?

The Mideast is becoming an active location for new alliances and the realignments of nations. The war between Israel and the USA against Iran has apparently triggered these actions.

As readers realize, the Syrian government under Assad fell and the tyrannical ex-leader of Syria fled to Russia for asylum. An ex-terrorist leader became the new head of the Syrian government and he surprised many by reaching out to the USA and the West to normalize relations with much of the world. Israel destroyed much of Syria’s military resources so they could not be used against Israel (first link). Outside powers jockeyed for new positions inside Syria. A sect called the Druse were attacked by radical elements of the Syrian forces and Israel, generally a supporter of the Druse, sent its military into Syria to protect the Druse from being attacked and persecuted. Turkey sent representatives inside Syria to visit a former Syrian air force base, indicating that Turkey wanted to establish a military presence in Syria. This was a provocation to the Israelis. Just after the Turkish delegation left, Israel attacked the base and warned Turkey Israel will attack “wherever and whenever” necessary to defend Israeli security interests (second and third links). Turkish-Israel relations hit a new low when Turkey sought to brand Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu a war criminal and have him arrested by Interpol (fourth link).

Then Israel and Greece announced a formalized military/security alliance which many saw as an effort to counter Turkish threats in the region. Turkey had threatened to attack Israel during the Israeli-Hamas war as mentioned in a previous post so the Turkish threat is real. The fifth link reports that Turkey is feeling threatened by the deepening Israeli-Greek alliance, and adds that there is now “unprecedented volatility” in the Aegean region which is shared by Greece and Turkey. Cyprus is becoming a partner in the Greco-Israeli alliance even as Turkey continues to occupy part of the island of Cyprus. The sixth link maintains that Turkey is using its NATO membership as a “mask” to hide its Islamist activities in the Mideast. It presents evidence that Turkey is becoming a “dictatorship” under Turkish President Erdogan and that Turkey is now “undermin[ing] the Trump administration’s Middle East” policies.

We need to remember that NATO was originally founded as an alliance wherein the USA could protect most of Western and Central Europe from a Soviet invasion. The USA was the new global superpower who was protecting the war-weakened European nations from Soviet/Communist dominance. This alliance worked well for many decades, but it has weakened in recent years. One major sign of NATO’s fracturing was Turkey’s choice to buy a modern air defense system from Russia even though that Russian system was designed to shoot down NATO warplanes. Turkey has been seen as a nation which may be on the verge of leaving NATO altogether. It does beg the question: How can Turkey stay in NATO when it is rejecting democracy and transitioning into an Islamist dictatorship? I’m reminded of the content of Amos 3:3 which states: “How can two walk together except they be agreed?” It is clear that the NATO democracies and Turkey’s authoritarianism are not “walking in agreement.”

Indeed, Turkey is transitioning into a new alliance with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan—an event widely reported in the world’s media. These three nations are all Sunni Islamic nations and it is noteworthy that this Sunni alliance is forming while the major Shiite nation of Iran is fighting with the USA. This is not necessarily an anti-American or anti-NATO alliance. Pakistan has friendly relations with the USA and it has genuinely tried to be a middleman between the USA and Iran to find a peaceful solution to the American/Israeli war with Iran. Saudi Arabia is a long-time ally of the USA and it has been targeted by Iranian missiles and drones in the current war. One Iranian missile reportedly hit Turkey as well. This new alliance is in the process of adding Kuwait, another Persian Gulf Sunni Arab nation, into its fold (seventh link). Kuwait has been hit by Iranian missiles and drones and American soldiers have died there when hit by Iranian ordnance.

The world seems to be making contingency plans for the collapse or rearrangement of the NATO alliance. Turkey is turning eastward into an alliance with other Sunni nations with Pakistan being a nuclear power. Greece has turned south to the Eastern Mediterranean region for a new alliance with Israel and Cyprus with Israel being a nuclear power. Greece seems to be preparing for a possible NATO collapse with Israel being a formidable nuclear power to protect it vs. Turkey. I expect Greece and Israel to form a very strong alliance along with Cyprus. Israel is also deepening its military ties with another NATO nation. That nation is Finland which has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MofU) with Israel which will permit greater military cooperation and weapons purchases between these two nations. This agreement was just extended from five years to ten years (eighth link).

The USA is, unfortunately, in a state of gradual decline. When NATO formed, the USA was a new superpower with its industries undamaged and a powerful financial position to rebuild Europe via the Marshall Plan. The USA is now reportedly running short of weapons while in a desultory war with Iran, had trouble provisioning one of its aircraft carriers and is so far in debt that massive amounts of its weaponry are being bought with borrowed money. European NATO nations see this and are clearly feeling the need to reach out to other nations for new security alliances. Perhaps the breaches that opened between Europe and the USA during the Trump presidency will be healed when a new US president is inaugurated, but that is not due to happen till January, 2029. A lot can happen between now and that date. Germany is holding a provincial election soon which is widely expected to result in a victory for the AfD, Germany’s rising rightist political party. In France, Marine Le Pen is leading the polls for France’s next national election. Le Pen is also a conservative who opposes mass immigration and other Leftist policies. If Germany and France both have rightist victories, it will rearrange Europe’s (and NATO’s) politics. Poland and the Baltic republics, all threatened by Russia and Belarus, are strongly in favor of NATO continuing as a single alliance. Poland and Romania have been strong US allies, and, as stated above, Greece is looking to Israel as a powerful new ally. Since it is essentially flat broke, the USA’s influence is on the wane.

Expect more ferment in geopolitical developments. If the world experiences a global fiscal/monetary crisis, major changes could happen quickly. As noted, Turkey went to Russia for its air defense needs and just allied itself with fellow Sunni powers. It is possible that Turkey will voluntarily leave NATO so it can stay out of any war provoked by a Russian invasion of NATO territory. Be prepared for a time when sudden change becomes routine.

TURKEY VS. GREECE AND ISRAEL?

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