MIDEAST STILL A CAULDRON OF INSTABILITY

Even as the world’s attention is focused on the major war between Russia and Ukraine and the capture of Venezuelan leader Maduro, the Mideast is smoldering with strife and is in danger of erupting into major warfare. Several of these continuing crises are very serious.

The first link reports on the internal ferment inside Iran as citizens are rebelling against the Mullahs who have dominated that nation for so long. Conflict is breaking out between government forces and the citizenry. The second link cites President Trump as warning Tehran’s government that the USA will not stand idly by if Iran’s leaders open fire on its citizens. That is a very risky threat as it could get the USA involved in the very kind of “forever” war that Trump said he wanted to avoid. The third link shows what I think is the real reason that Iran stands on the precipice of internal disintegration. It is running out of water. When people have water in their taps only a few hours each day and the situation is worsening, people will turn to violence. Iran’s capital city, Tehran, is among the locations most affected by this water shortage.

Surprisingly, not many Western media sources are reporting on the severe water shortage which is triggering mass rebellion. The third link offers a web search which finds many links about the Iranian water shortage. It is approaching a status so dire that Tehran is rumored to be nearing an evacuation order. Tehran has many millions of people living in its metro area. How do you find water for millions of thirsty people in a dry nation like Iran? Moses led millions of Israelites out of Egypt into a desert environment for 40 years, but I very much doubt the God of Moses will help the Iranian mullahs. This could get very ugly. Lots of people will die if the Iranian rulers ignore this crisis much longer.

The fourth link and fifth link examine the ongoing tribulations in trying to implement a genuine cease-fire in Gaza. We are at a point where Hamas must disarm and an international force will enter Gaza to separate the Israeli forces from the Gazans. This agreement is close to collapse. I think it is only Trump’s relentless pressure that is keeping it alive. As long as Hamas is armed there is a danger of more attacks on Israel like the one on October 7, 2023. Turkey is very eager to be one of the nations that furnishes troops to be inserted between Israel and Gaza. It is utterly unacceptable to Israel that Turkey be one of the nations furnishing troops to this international peace force in Gaza. In recent years, Turkey has threatened to “invade” Israel and go to war vs. Israel over the Gaza situation. The sixth link reports that 90% of Israelis oppose any role for Turkey in any international force that might be established in Gaza. Turkey has been pro-Hamas throughout the Hamas vs. Israel war and its polarization disqualifies it from being part of a “neutral” administrative force.

The USA and Israel both have an understood veto over the approximately four nations that will furnish troops to this international force to be inserted into Gaza. The USA itself may be one of those nations. Egypt, which served as an intermediary to negotiate a ceasefire, is almost certain to be a nation involved with providing troops to the administrative force implementing the ceasefire. The UAE, Morocco, Indonesia and other moderate Arab, Islamic nations are likely to provide the other two nations for this international force. I don’t think Trump appreciated how pro-Hamas and anti-Israeli Turkey actually is. Unless the nations chosen are acceptable to Israel, Israel will simply refuse to progress any further in the process.

You may have read or heard about the US military strikes inside Syria which was a response to three Americans being killed by ISIS/Al Quaida forces still in Syria. The seventh link offers some details on that raid. After the fall of Assad’s government, Syria has since been in chaos. Syria’s rebel forces were led by a former terrorist who had a bounty placed on his head by the USA. That new leader sought to smooth relations with western powers and he was even invited to the White House. That’s a good start but Syria is still in chaos. When the Assad government fell and Assad flew to Russia, Syria’s armed forces simply refused to “show up” for duty. During that period of confusion, Israeli planes and naval forces attacked and destroyed Syria’s navy, its air force and much of its armor with impunity. Israel also sent troops into southern Syria to create a buffer zone between Israel and the Syrian chaos. Israel also moved into Syria to protect Druse populations, a sect which has enjoyed friendly relations with the Israelis. Some Druse serve in the IDF. The eighth link describes the negotiations to try to create an established border between Israel and Syria, and that job will not be easy. I expect Israel will demand sovereignty over Druse-inhabited regions, especially after radical terrorist forces inside Syria attacked and massacred a high number of Druse citizens. Israel can realistically plead that it has no one to negotiate with as control over Syria’s former territory is divided among many groups. In Eastern Syria, a large Kurdish population wants independence or at least local autonomy within Syria. The Kurds are guarding thousands of former ISIS fighters in desert camps, but I wonder who is paying the bill to house and feed those ISIS fighters.

Now things get really strange. The ninth link and tenth link describe how armed conflict recently broke out between two US allies: Saudi Arabia and the UAE. As readers know, Yemen is a failed state with Houthis aligned with Iran attacking international shipping at the southern tip of the Red Sea and a nearby US-Saudi alliance which periodically attacks the Houthis. Unexpectedly, Saudi warplanes attacked a convoy with weaponry from the UAE intended for a rival faction within Yemen. Having armed conflict break out between Saudi Arabia and the UAE is a development no one could have seen coming as the Saudis and the UAE usually march in lock-step on global and regional matters. Apparently, the Saudis and the UAE are backing different paramilitary militias which are both fighting vs. the Houthis. By all logical calculations, these anti-Houthi factions ought to combine forces and fight the Houthis together. It is vital that the Saudis and the UAE are fighting not each other but, rather, be on the same side in the seemingly endless war inside Yemen.

Finally, there is one more development that sent me to a web search. Remember Somalia? It was the region where the famous “Black Hawk Down” episode occurred in which the USA took casualties. If I recall correctly, President Clinton sent in lightly-armed US forces to fight a large and entrenched force inside Mogadishu. A movie was made detailing this action. Confirming the fact that President Clinton knew little about military matters, he forgot (or refused) to send tanks and some heavy armor with the US soldiers who were inserted into that region. As the movie showed, Pakistan sent some tanks into that location as part of some peacekeeping effort and the US troops had to ask for support from Pakistani tanks. Like Yemen, Somalia has degenerated into a failed state. One region wants to be a separate nation and it calls itself Somaliland. The eleventh link details how the Israelis stepped in and recognized Somaliland as an independent nation. The twelfth link shows where the borders of the new state of Somaliland is located. It has a strategic position near the southern end of the Red Sea, and on the north it borders Djibouti. Djibouti is essentially a city-state which hosts both a Communist Chinese and a US military base. This could only happen in the Mideast. I wonder if the Communist and American forces periodically have soccer matches to break up the monotony of watching sand storms.

Having recognized Somaliland as a nation, Israel can sign an agreement creating an alliance between Israel and Somaliland. Israel can send weaponry and troops to Somaliland and theoretically also base Israeli warplanes inside Somaliland which can easily attack the Iranian-based Houthis inside what used to be Yemen.

After reading the above updates about activities in the Mideast, can anyone explain all this chaos? In all seriousness, many Mideastern populations give far greater allegiance to their tribal history than to the central government of whatever nation they are currently “citizens” of. If we could see a Mideastern map showing all the tribal groups’ borders instead of the national borders, I think we’d understand the Mideastern cauldron a lot better.

MIDEAST STILL A CAULDRON OF INSTABILITY

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