ISRAEL'S GROWING NUCLEAR TRIAD

As the wars in Gaza and Ukraine are still raging and Russia is still aggressive, I believe it is timely to consider the relative nuclear strengths of the various militaries in the world. Having deliverable nuclear weapons in a nation’s military inventory ensures that any such nation will be regarded with an extra measure of respect. In an existential crisis, nuclear powers can threaten to annihilate entire nations if they feel sufficiently threatened by them. Let’s consider a case in point. At the end of the Cold War when the Soviet Union imploded, Ukraine briefly had possession of over a thousand nuclear weapons it inherited from the defunct Soviet Union. It was at that time the third largest nuclear power in the world. Naively, Ukraine agreed to have all its nukes destroyed in exchange for security guarantees from the USA, the UK and Russia. Technically, Ukraine could possibly demand that the USA and UK implement security guarantees against Russia in Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. One way that security guarantee could be implemented is for the USA and UK to give to Ukraine a significant number of nuclear warheads. Do you think Russia would have invaded Ukraine if Ukraine were still the third largest nuclear power on the planet? Of course not. If Ukraine had over a thousand nuclear weapons in its inventory (and therefore the ability to bomb Russia out of existence), I feel confident in asserting that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine. Having nuclear weapons is such a powerful deterrent that they do prevent wars. Information about Ukraine’s ill-advised abandonment of its nuclear weapons is found in the first link.

Ever since the dawn of the nuclear arms race between the USA and the USSR, the term “nuclear triad” came into common usage. It was applied to a nation which had the ability to launch nuclear weapons at an enemy from air, sea and land launch points. The USA and the USSR were the first nations to have a nuclear triad. In application, it meant a nation could deliver nuclear weapons upon an enemy by (A) launching land-based ICBMs, (B) launching nukes from submerged or surfaced nuclear submarines, or (D) using nuclear gravity bombs which would be dropped by air force bombers or fighter-bombers. Besides the USA and Russia, China and India have also officially joined the nuclear triad club. Israel is often regarded as being a fifth member of this exclusive military club (second link and third link), although Israel has not officially stated the size of its nuclear might. Some lists include other known nuclear powers as well, such as the United Kingdom and France. An estimation of all the nations with nukes and the number of such warheads in their possession is included in the fourth link. It is noteworthy that the third link estimates Israel’s number of nuclear warheads to be 80, but the fourth link indicates its nukes could number from 90 to 200.

Let us consider the acknowledged and presumed size of Israel’s nuclear triad forces. It has a significant number of land-based ICBMs with nuclear warheads. These missiles are called the Jericho missiles and they carry nuclear warheads of considerable size. Israel has had various versions of this missile for decades, and the current models have far greater range than the Jericho missiles initially deployed (fifth link). Israel has long had the capability of delivering gravity bombs with nuclear payloads from a variety of its air force warplanes adapted for such missions.

The Israelis also have sea-launched, nuclear-capable missiles. Israel has a modern, sophisticated submarine fleet built for them by Germany. I find it historically ironic that Germany, the nation which deployed so many U-boats in World Wars I and II, is now building modern “U-boats” for the Israeli (Jewish) Navy. Germany has even paid for some of Israel’s submarines. As an aside, I do not think Germany receives enough credit for repudiating its Nazi past and doing what it can to help the Jewish people by being a military supplier and ally to the modern Jewish nation. Several of the Israeli Navy’s dolphin-class subs are widely believed to have nuclear-tipped cruise missiles which can be fired via the torpedo tubes. I regard it as highly likely that Israeli submarines set out on their strategic patrols with a mix of conventional- and nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. The Israeli subs are very quiet and hard to detect. These subs can be positioned to be ready to launch nuclear counter-strikes vs. any nation which seeks to use nuclear weapons against Israel. A discussion of Israel’s nuclear[-capable submarines is found in the sixth link.

More Israeli submarines are still being built by Germany. The latest one apparently has a feature which will make it unique among the world’s navies. It is being built with an extended sail (the part of the submarine which has the control tower and periscope). It is assumed by analysts that Israel will place upright, nuclear-capable ICBMs in that extended sail, which will enable the Israeli Navy to launch much heavier nuclear warheads than at present (seventh link).

When evaluating the list of how many nuclear weapons are possessed by the world’s nuclear powers, the numbers are a bit misleading. I suspect they are including in each nation’s tally all nuclear warheads regardless of size. Some huge warheads have massive overkill capabilities and can destroy entire metro areas while some tactical nukes are much less destructive than the “bunker buster” conventional warheads used by the USA in its recent attack upon Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.

Some tactical nuclear warheads can be very small. In the 1950s-60s, the USA developed and deployed very small nuclear weapons which were essentially no bigger than heavy mortars. These were called the Davy Crockett weapons system (eighth link). The USA also developed and deployed a heavy artillery piece called “the Long Tom,” which could fire nuclear warheads as far as 20 miles in a tactical usage (ninth link). These weapons were retired from active service long ago, but the technology which developed them was not lost. Any nuclear power could today make similar small nuclear warheads for tactical purposes. Such weapons would be very useful for use against enemy military targets which were in or adjacent to civilian areas.

It should also be mentioned that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan just finalized a strategic agreement which places the Saudis under Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella. The terms of the agreement are not altogether clear, but the existence of this pact will make any nation less motivated to use any nuclear warheads against the Saudis. Given what I believe is the clear fact that Ukraine would not have been attacked by Russia if it had retained its large nuclear arsenal, it is a stark example in the modern world that having nuclear weapons in a nations’ arsenal makes it far less likely to be attacked by anyone.

There is one biblical prophecy that could describe the use of nuclear weapons in the latter days. Matthew 24:6-7, 21-22 prophecy that there will be “wars and rumors of wars” in the latter days and some will surely involve nuclear-armed nations. This prophecy also foretells that conditions will deteriorate so badly that Divine intervention (the return of Jesus Christ and a heavenly army described in Revelation 19:11-20:4) will be needed to prevent the extinction of “all flesh.” Nuclear wars breaking out would be one credible instance which could jeopardize life on earth. Zechariah 14 includes a description of an apocalyptic war being fought in the Mideast as this age draws to a close just as the Messiah/Jesus Christ returns and sets up his Millennial reign on earth. Zechariah describes one part of the final World War III as clearly being in the region of Jerusalem (verse 2) and verses 12-15 describe some of the catastrophic effects that will come upon those who are attacking Jerusalem and its environs. It describes attacking armies which will be killed as their flesh is melted off their faces and heads before their bodies have time to fall over and hit the ground. That could be accomplished easily by Divine action, but it could also be caused easily by nuclear weapons being detonated amidst attacking hordes. This prophecy is another example of the Bible’s prophecies being very accurate in describing the conditions that will or could unfold on earth at the end of our current age.

One final point should be made. In reviewing the above information about nuclear powers, it should be pointed out that various other nations need nuclear weapons as a deterrent force and have the technology to build them. It is currently assumed that Japan, South Korea and Taiwan dwell under the protection of the USA’s nuclear umbrella and that Germany and Poland are under the nuclear umbrella of NATO’s nuclear powers. Are all NATO nations under the nuclear umbrella of the USA, the UK and France? Finally, it must be recognized that some nations may not officially be nuclear powers, but may actually be in possession of nuclear warheads. When the USSR collapsed, there were reports that “loose nukes” from the old Soviet Union were available on the black market and no one knows where they all ended up. Some small nuclear warheads from the USSR, called “suitcase nukes,” were also reported as missing. If we could have a “God’s eye view” of where all the modern nukes are physically located, I’m confident we would see some surprises.

ISRAEL’S GROWING NUCLEAR TRIAD

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