IS NATO A DYING ALLIANCE?

After World War II, the Cold War began and the Western European nations formed the NATO alliance, which was based on the military muscle of the USA. While non-Communist Europe mostly united under the NATO banner, the Soviet Union headed the Warsaw Pact, an alliance of conquered Eastern European nations held together by Russian coercion and control. NATO successfully deterred a Soviet attack, and American power shielded the European nations which were rebuilt by American dollars via the Marshall Plan and protected by American military power.

When the Cold War ended, many Eastern European and Baltic nations transferred their allegiance to NATO, and Russia began its slow rebuilding process to again become a major military threat to Europe. That common threat held NATO together, but the European nations developed a habit of dependency on the USA to do all the military deterrence of Russia. European nations within NATO have let their defenses wither. Their military strategy, if they had one at all, was, essentially, to “fight to the last American” if war broke out.

NATO has long been a one-sided arrangement. The USA, which emerged from World War II basically unscathed and in the position of a global super-power, was long content to allow NATO nations to exist as American protectorates. Now that the USA is an extremely indebted nation, it cannot shoulder the entire defense costs for NATO.

To that end, President Trump pressured European nations to contribute more to their own defense during Trump’s first term. Some nations, like Poland stepped up and have turned themselves into conventional military powers. Other European nations have responded in more minimal fashions. Some NATO nations allowed their defenses to again wither during the Biden administration. Now a crisis has emerged which could, potentially, lead to the dismemberment of the entire NATO alliance. The Ukraine war started by Russian aggression has stimulated some European nations to build up their military forces and some have given meaningful support to Ukraine to fight off Russia. The USA, predictably, has done the most to help Ukraine in its efforts to not be again conquered by Russia. Ukraine has done remarkably well. Russia thought it would defeat Ukraine within days; however, we are in the fourth year of this war and Ukraine and Russia seem stalemated on the battlefield. Ukraine has shown remarkable determination and resilience. It has become, arguably, the foremost military drone-maker and military drone user on the planet. I’ve read that Ukraine has been so effective in drone development that significant swaths of the Russia-Ukrainian battleline are defended not by Ukrainian soldiers but by Ukrainian killer drones–which kill all living humans in their programmed territorial assignments. Both nations have suffered incredible casualties, but Russia, in the opinion of the accounts I’ve read, is losing so many soldiers and war material that Russia risks losing much of a generation of its young men.

Currently, President Trump is visibly upset at the European NATO nations for doing essentially nothing to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and building up a military force that exceeds that of European nations. Indeed, some European nations, as the first and other links below report, have even refused to let the USA land its warplanes at European NATO airports on their way to the Mideast combat zone. Those nations are reported to be Spain, Italy, France, Switzerland and Austria. This is an example of remarkable thanklessness on the part of the European nations. I realize not all these nations are in NATO, but they have all slumbered peacefully under the protection of the American nuclear umbrella that has safeguarded the entire European continent.

The American-Israeli war with Iran has shown that Iran has long-range missiles that no one knew they had. Their missiles could reach the distance of Diego Garcia, an island in the Indian Ocean with vital American and British bases. Iran has demonstrated that European cities are now within range of Iranian missiles. It isn’t hard to understand why Trump is upset that European nations refuse to act to defend themselves by depriving Iran of its long-range missiles that could wipe out Europe’s large cities if Iran can mate a nuclear warhead to their missiles. With everything to lose by doing nothing, what are Europe’s NATO nations doing to counter and deter the Iranian nuclear threat? They are doing…nothing. I think Trump has a point when he wonders why Americans should fight Iran alone without any NATO help when NATO nations seem barely interested in defending themselves. The Europeans are driving Trump and the USA toward a “Fortress America” mindset. I do hope Trump remembers that some European nations have heeded his warning to spend more on their own defense and are working hard to defend their nations. Poland is a stellar example.

As I wrote in a post not long ago, the Russian-Ukraine war would never have started if Ukraine had kept its share of nuclear weapons that it inherited when the Soviet Union collapsed. There is a painful, but truthful lesson in the Russian willingness to invade Ukraine as long as Ukraine had no nukes for self-defense. If nations want to seriously defend themselves against nuclear-armed neighbor nations who might invade them, such threatened nations need to have nuclear weapons to have any realistic deterrence against nuclear-armed aggressor nations. Do not be surprised if Japan announces before too long that is has or is pursuing a significant nuclear arms program. Living next to three nuclear-armed, aggressor nations (Russia, China and North Korea), Japan has little choice but to build a significant number of nuclear warheads deliverable by missiles or warplanes.

I’m hoping that NATO can be saved, but Trump will remember the European nations who refused to act in their own interests to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten Western civilization. A time may come when European nations call Washington, D.C. for help and learn that Trump is not taking their phone calls. It is my understanding that Trump cannot unilaterally take the USA out of NATO, and that Congress must formally take that step if it is deemed necessary. The current NATO nations are far stronger united than apart, but it is my sense that the fractures are now getting so bad within NATO that a partial rupture of the alliance is now possible.

Biblical prophecy, in my judgment argues that NATO is likely to survive. Ezekiel 38-39 give many details about how a future World War III will unfold. You can read those details in my report: What Ezekiel 38-39 Reveals about a Future World War III (see fifth link). You will be able to see in that report my reasons for believing NATO will stay a united alliance. That report was written over two decades ago so it has references and internet addresses which may now be dated, but the overall prophetic material and its modern context is just as fresh and relevant to today’s world as it was to the time in which it was first written.

IS NATO A DYING ALLIANCE?

Categories

Recent Posts

Archives