Media articles periodically focus on whether the USA or China would win a war fought over Taiwanese independence. Both the USA and China express confidence that they would win such a war. Of course, there is no way of knowing the answer unless such a war occurs. China has asserted that its war game planners have repeatedly determined that China would win any such war (first link). The US asserts that it would win such a war (second link). The first two links offer opposing viewpoints on this issue, and I’ve included them both for your review.
One factor that works against the USA is that its arsenal of weaponry is being depleted by President Biden’s decision to send to the Ukraine vast amounts of America’s own war reserves. China is likely hoping this war continues for some time as the USA steadily loses its ability to resupply Taiwan as more American reserves get shipped to Ukraine. However, China’s war games also surely assume that their untried weaponry and untested military personnel will perform perfectly under actual combat conditions. That is rarely the case.
We are not told the assumed parameters of China’s or America’s war games. All war games make certain assumptions and have to be fought under those assumed conditions. I have some questions about the assumptions built into China’s own war games. Do the war games assume that China will fight only Taiwan and the USA, or do they assume that Japan, South Korea and other Indo-Chinese nations will also intervene on the side of Taiwan? So many nations are dependent on high-tech computer chips from Taiwan that China might be surprised how many nations contribute to Taiwan’s defense. If Taiwan makes a successful defense against a Chinese invasion, nations that refused to help Taiwan may thereafter be excluded from access to Taiwanese computer chips. On the other hand, if Taiwan loses a war, the world’s nations may think that China will supply them with Taiwan’s super-chips (a very misguided assumption given that Taiwan would almost surely conduct a “scorched earth” policy of destroying any domestic computer-chip industries useful to China before they surrendered–making the invasion a commercial waste of resources for China). China also risks repeating the experience of Russia in its invasion of Ukraine–that some of its major weapons systems will perform much worse than expected. Russia thought it had an advanced and perhaps invincible force of tanks and armored vehicles before they invaded Ukraine. Instead, Russian armored forces turned out to be very vulnerable to the anti-tank weapons given by the West to the Ukrainian army to use. China may also learn that some of its new weaponry is unexpectedly vulnerable to Western weapons. Also, are AI technologies already being integrated into major weapons systems which could affect the outcome of such a major war
Also, has China included in its war games the fact that its Three Gorges Dam and other critical Chinese infrastructures are almost certainly going to be destroyed in an all-out war over Taiwan? That might also make a Taiwanese war very counter-productive as it would set back China’s economy and society for years. Are both America and China assuming that any war over Taiwan would remain non-nuclear? That is likely, but it is not certain. If China ever used tactical nukes on US aircraft carrier task forces, for example, it is virtually certain that the USA would use its own nuclear warheads on China’s Three Gorges Dam and critical military targets. It cannot be assumed that a war over Taiwan could be kept a conventional-war only. The losing side might opt for a nuclear escalation as the leaders of both nations know they will almost certainly be deposed if they lose the war?
I doubt China’s war-games assume that other Indo-Pacific nations will join with the USA in making war against China to preserve an independent Taiwan. However, in a recent post I noted that South Korea and Japan have made peace on issues that have divided them for many years so now they can act as unified allies in a regional war started by China or North Korea. Both South Korea and Japan are actively considering “going nuclear” to have better deterrence against attack, and both nations have the technology to easily build nuclear weaponry of all types and sizes. Both South Korea and Japan have moved firmly into the US alliance against Chinese militarism. The third link reminds us that the Philippines have moved firmly back into the pro-Western alliance vs. China and that Vietnam and the Philippines are starting to present a united front against China. Almost certainly, China’s war games scenarios do not assume that NATO and Australian military assets will be used against China in any war to seize Taiwan. If China declares a blockade against Taiwan, NATO, AUKUS and Quad nations may position their submarines to join American, Japanese and South Korean submarines in an opening strike vs. threatening Chinese warships.
There is one other potentially game-changing factor. Some time ago I wrote a post that cited a link which raised the possibility that Israel and the USA have jointly developed a Star Trek-like defensive weapon system which would dramatically tilt the odds in any Chinese-American war over Taiwan. China assumes the USA has no effective defense of its aircraft carriers vs Chinese hypersonic and ballistic missile attacks. The fourth link includes a discussion that US carriers may already be equipped with a secret, electronic “force field” defense which acts like the “shields” protecting space-ships in Star Trek movies and TV programs. If America’s major warships are protected by defensive, electronic force fields, any Chinese missiles coming in contact with such shields may self-destruct or have their guidance systems “fried” so they veer off in wayward flight paths.
Students of biblical prophecy know that China, Russia, Iran and their allies will eventually attack the NATO nations and other nations allied to NATO. Ezekiel 38-39 offer much information about how that war will be fought and the prophecy predicts the Gog-Magog alliance of the Communist/totalitarian powers will lose and suffer breath-taking loses as our age comes to an end and the “Millennium” begins. Please see my research report, What Ezekiel 38-39 Reveal About a Future World War III, to see what the combined biblical prophecies about a climactic age-ending war reveal. In Matthew 24:21-22, Jesus Christ foretold that “all flesh” would perish unless Divine intervention occurs to halt a prophesied World War III from getting so out of control that mankind and all fleshly life on earth is annihilated.
I don’t see the current world situation as indicating a World War III is imminent…but I could be wrong. Do what you can to prepare in the event that a major war does occur. Two things are certain if an American-Chinese war happens: Supply chains will collapse all over the earth if such a war erupts and global currencies will gyrate and perhaps fall together. A major Chinese-American war over Taiwan could also be the trigger that causes the prophecy of Revelation 17-18 about a global economic/monetary collapse to occur. Be prepared for unceasingly dangerous times ahead.
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