After chieftains of Hamas and Hezbollah were killed in the capital cities of Lebanon and Iran, Iran declared that it was going to take revenge against Israel in a major way. Israel acknowledged it was responsible for one of the assassinations, but took no credit for the other one. Time is slipping by, but no Iranian attack against Israel has yet come to pass. Has Iran changed its mind or is it attacking Israel in a non-kinetic way?
Israel has fought a ten-month war against Hamas in Gaza with no end in sight. This is a huge drain on the Israeli economy and population. Israel is a very small nation, as those who have been there already know. Israel cannot endlessly support a war of attrition vs. Hamas or anyone else for that matter. So many soldiers have been pulled away from their civilian jobs, approximately 60,000 Israelis have been evacuated southward from northern cities that are near the Hezbollah-controlled border, Israel and Hezbollah are exchanging rocket and artillery fire along the Israeli-Lebanese/Hezbollah border almost daily and Israel’s war vs. Hamas in Gaza has caused Israel to “burn” through an immense amount of munitions. Much of Israel’s economy is based on money being spent by tourists visiting “Holy Land” sites within Israel, but the tourists have little reason to visit Israel until the wars are over and it is safe to visit Israeli biblical/archaeological sites. These facts caused me to consider another possible Iranian strategy that may be at work in the current situation.
It has been reported that Iran may take a long time before responding to Israel’s assassination of key leaders within the terrorist groups that are Iran’s proxies in its war against Israel. When Iran tried to attack Israel with over 300 missiles and drones a few months ago, almost none of them got through Israel’s defenses. Another such attack is not likely to have a different result. Indeed, Israel may be desirous of an Iranian attack which would give Israel ample reason to launch a crushing attack against both Hezbollah and Iran. Israel is capable of inflicted very heavy damage against Iran. Israel could attack Iran’s nuclear sites and also cripple Iran’s oil producing and oil-loading facilities. If Israel destroyed Iran’s Kharg Island oil-storage and oil-loading facility, it would cut off billions of dollars of oil revenues now being generated by Iran through oil sales. It may be Iran’s strategy to avoid a kinetic war with Israel while strangling Israel’s economy by keeping Israel on a high state of military readiness and keeping tourists away from Israel via the high-threat environment. Iran may think it can do more harm to Israel by not attacking it militarily but rather damaging Israel’s economy.
As I wrote in a recent post, time is not on Israel’s side. At some point Israel will need to launch a major preemptive strike to end the damage being done to Israel economically via spending much money maintaining a war footing and via driving tourists away from Israel. Israel certainly has the right to launch a preemptive strike by any definition of international law of which I am aware. Iran’s stated policy is to “wipe Israel off the map” and that describes Hezbollah’s goal as well. The first link offers an analysis of Israel’s weighing a preemptive strike vs. Iran and Hezbollah. Such a war would “get the fighting over with” so there can be a return to normalcy. Israel has every right to go to war with an enemy which seeks to eliminate Israel as a nation.
Recent media stories seemed to indicate that an Israeli-Hamas cease-fire was imminent. Numerous efforts have been made by the USA, Egypt and Qatar to find a peace deal that would end the Israeli-Hamas war. A cease-fire proposal initiated by these three nations was reportedly accepted by Israel, but Hamas refused to accept it (second link). This indicates that Hamas doesn’t really want any cease-fire. It may be that Iran has ordered Hamas to sacrifice itself as it wears out the Israeli military in a prolonged conflict. It is also possible that Hamas doesn’t really want a hostage deal with Israel because none (or few) of the Israeli hostages are still alive and Hamas wants to hide that fact as long as possible. If that is the case, Israel’s wrath will be incredible!
The Biden administration has seemed to be of two minds concerning the Israeli-Hamas war. It veers back and forth between favoring Israel and favoring Hamas. When President Obama was in office, his administration took an oddly pro-Iranian stance. President Trump was pro-Israeli and originated the Abraham Accords which brought Israel into full diplomatic status with several Arab nations. Joe Biden was Obama’s Vice-President and the Biden administration has been mostly implementing the pro-Iranian policies of the Obama administration. I find this exceedingly odd given that Iran calls the USA the “Great Satan” and orchestrates demonstrations which chant “death to America.” Amidst the enigmas that permeate Mideastern politics, there was a report that the Biden administration leaked the names of ten Mossad agents to Iran (third link). If so, that is tantamount to signing their death warrants. If that report is true, Israel has ever right to cease all diplomatic and intelligence cooperation with the USA as such an action would be a terrible “stab in the back” to Israel by the USA.
This smoldering military conflict between Israel and Iran/Hezbollah cannot be continued indefinitely. At some point, either Iran will have to attack Israel to save face in the Mideast or Israel will have to attack to end the longstanding threats posed to it by Iran and Hezbollah. When the war comes, I expect an Israeli victory based on the prophecies in Genesis 49:8-9, Zephaniah 2:1-11 and Zechariah 12:1-9. That does not mean Israel will emerge unharmed. Such a war will have huge effects on global markets. If Israel destroys Iran’s oil-production and export facilities, there will be a huge drop in the global daily production of oil. This should logically propel oil prices to much higher levels, which would be very inflationary as well. If Iran and Israel have a major war, the world will surely feel its effects.
- https://tjvnews.com/2024/08/
is-israel-weighing-a- preemptive-strike-on-iran- amid-rising-tensions/ - https://virtualjerusalem.com/
hamas-rejects-ceasefire-aims- to-restart-suicide-attacks/ - https://tjvnews.com/2024/08/
report-reveals-that-us- allegedly-gave-names-of-10- mossad-agents-to-tehran/
