Although the Obama administration verbally indicates it has all but given up on a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, its deeds are saying otherwise. The first link below, from an Islamic website, reports that there are now “more than 90 war vessels in the [Persian] Gulf,” and that there is now a “military environment” in the Persian Gulf. Iran’s Foreign Minister made it crystal clear that these numerous western naval ships will be the “best operational targets” for Iranian forces to attack if Iran’s nuclear facilities are attacked. Iran also threatens to attack Israeli weapons plants and its Dimona nuclear reactor if Iran is targeted by a military strike. Iran does not have to launch missiles from Iran to attack those Israeli targets. It can launch thousands of missiles from Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon and (very likely) hundreds of missiles from Hamas in Gaza to attack those targets in Israel. If this happens, we will learn if Israel’s “Iron Dome” defensive shield is truly operational or not.
The second link indicates that there are now “nearly 100 [western] warships” in the Persian Gulf practicing operations “to be directed against Iran.” The total of 100 warships includes just those which would be arrayed against Iran. If Iran’s naval vessels are included in the total, there are a very large number of warships now jockeying for position against each other in the event war breaks out. This is the kind of situation where one ship commander with an itchy trigger finger could ignite a major war. Iran will surely fire many hundreds of cruise missiles at these western warships if war breaks out. Many missiles will be aimed at any U.S. carriers in the Gulf.
The Obama administration is really caught between a rock and a hard place vis a vis Iran. If Obama does not attack Iran and allows Iran to develop nuclear weapons, Obama could very well likely bear the same “wimp” label that ended any chance of Jimmy Carter being re-elected when he weakly let Iran hold U.S. embassy staff captive for over a year. If Iran gets nukes, all of Obama’s goals about nuclear nonproliferation will go down the toilet. Previous blogs have reported that South Korea and Saudi Arabia may already be de-facto nuclear powers. Many other nations will also quickly develop nukes if Obama passively allows Iran to obtain them. On the other hand, if Obama attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities, there could be a major war involving many nations and it is likely that such warfare will also come to American home soil as Hezbollah sleeper cells are activated to attack iconic American locations.
The third link below confirms that the USA has been “beefing up its military presence and war paraphernalia off the Iranian Coast.” This could be a routine “flexing of military muscles” or it could indicate military action is considered more likely. Obama is walking a treacherous path on his Iranian policy. If the Israelis decide they have to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities to ensure their national survival, Obama’s political career will likely be “toast” if he refuses to help (or if he actually hinders) the Israeli attack. American voters are overwhelmingly pro-Israeli and they will not forgive Obama and the Democrats now in power if Obama refuses to help the Israelis. The final link, from the International Business Times, provides even more evidence that this growing naval confrontation between the USA and Iran in the Persian Gulf is a reality.
At some point, either Iran or the USA will have to “blink” and yield to the other’s wishes or war is inevitable. I don’t think either one intends to blink. Even if Obama opts for a weak policy and “blinks,” the Israelis cannot allow Iran to get the nukes that could destroy the Israeli nation. That existential need on the part of the Israelis may force Obama’s hand after all.