Recent developments in the Mideast have raised the likelihood of a war breaking out in that region. The links below detail some of these developments. The first link below reports that Egyptians stormed the Israeli Embassy in Cairo and ransacked it. Obviously, the Egyptian military government took no measures to prevent this outrage which bodes very ill for Israeli-Egyptian relations in the post-Mubarak era. The second link details Turkey’s effort to form a new alliance with Egypt, and it doesn’t take a proverbial “rocket scientist” to realize that Turkey is trying to isolate Israel in such an action. An Egyptian-Turkish alliance vs. the Israelis would make Israel’s security position very threatened, and Turkey’s leader is making ever-more bellicose statements toward the Israelis.
The third link has especially ominous information. Turkey purchased many ariplanes and weapons systems from the USA when it was a reliable NATO ally. The article states that such weaponry was sold by the USA with IFF (Identification Friend or Foe) technology that defaulted all Israeli warplanes, warships, etc. to be tagged as “friendly” forces. Turkey has disabled this IFF system and is reprogramming its military weaponry to eliminate Israeli targets as “friendlies” so that Turkish warplanes and warships can open fire on Israeli targets. This is another development that Turkey is making determined preparations for an eventual war against the Israelis.
Recognizing that the Egyptian-Israeli situation is now very unstable, the fourth link notes the Israelis are forming a special commando unit to patrol its Egytpian border for infiltrators and other threats, indicating that war tensions are rising along the Israeli border with Egypt and Gaza. It also reports that Hamas recently launched an attack which killed 8 Israelis and wounded 30 others. This was an act-of-war by Hamas against the Israelis, but Israel likely held back any massive retaliation for now in view of the dangerous situation in its deteriorating relationship with Egypt.
The fifth link reports that not everything is going badly for the Israelis. Greece and Cyprus, rivals of Turkey, are moving to a closer partnership with the Israelis to fill the void created by Turkey’s abandonment of its previous friendly relations with Israel. It also contains a well-worth-reading discussion of the friendly relations between the Israelis and the Kurds, who are a traditional enemy of the Turks and form a large percentage of the population of Eastern Turkey. The Kurds want an independent Kurdistan very badly, and the Israelis may recognize an independent Kurdistan and openly aid the Kurds if Turkey recognizes a Palestinian state and continues to provoke the Israelis. If this happens, Kurdistan could break away from the Iraqi government altogether and become an independent nation dwelling under an Israeli nuclear umbrella of protection.
As many readers know, the Palestinians are moving to force a vote at the UN very soon for Palestinian statehood. So far, the Obama administration indicates that it will veto this measure if it reaches the UN Security Council, effectively killing the measure. The sixth link cites that such an action by Obama at the UN will incite Saudi anger vs. the Obama administration. In a previous blog post, I documented that the Saudis are furious with Obama for his abandonment of Mubarak, a pro-Western, pro-Saudi leader of a Sunni Moslem nation, so the Saudis are apparently “itching” for a clean break with an Obama-led USA.
Personally, I think that Obama would prefer to favor the Palestinian statehood effort, but his political advisors have warned him that such an action would “cook his goose” for getting re-elected to a second term as the American voters strongly favor the Israelis and the Democrat party needs the Jews as a voting bloc in the Democrat column. If Obama abandons the Israelis, Jewish contributors and voters may swing away from their traditional support of the Democrats and move into the GOP column. In an election year where he is already in trouble, Obama has to consider the political impact of his international actions.
The seventh link shows that Saudi Arabia had a far more pressing security concern than the Israelis, especially considering that the Israelis would undoubtedly prefer to live in peace with Saudi Arabia and, I think, the Saudis fully realize this fact. In a attack little noticed or publicized by the world media, the Shiite Iranian militias in Iraq launched three scud missiles against Kuwait, a strong Sunni Arab ally of Saudi Arabia. This is a very ominous development. The scuds were launched not from Iran, but from Iraqi soil! This means that the US-backed Iraqi government has minimal control over large swaths of its own territory. The article further warns that it is feared that as many as 250 scud missiles have fallen into the Iranian- and Hezbollah-backed militias within Iraq. These scuds could be fired at Kuwait, Saudi Arabia or American troops based in Iraq. I hope someone at the Pentagon noticed this report and has tasked American forces to either seize or destroy the scuds which are effectively under Iranian control even though they are located on Iraqi territory. Kuwait has reacted, understandably, with great anger to this scud attack on its territory and warned it will have “zero tolerance” against further such attacks, raising the possibility of a Kuwaiti military attack into Iraq if more scud attacks occur. This heightened danger of an Iranian-Saudi war (really a Persian Shiite vs. Arab Sunni war) will surely act as a strong influence upon the Saudis to not make war with the Israelis. Indeed, in the odd world of Mideast politics, if an Iranian-Saudi war breaks out, the House of Saud may fall unless it makes common cause with the Israelis vs. Iran. It certainly can’t rely on a USA led by Obama.
I hope that the budding Egyptian-Turkish alliance does not start a war with the Israelis. If it does, I expect the Israelis to fight an all-out war to teach its enemies such a terrible lesson that they will never attack Israel again. The Israelis fought the Hamas war with basically both hands tied behind its back and it fought the Hezbollah war on the Lebanese border with at least one hand behind its back. If it had to fight both Egypt and Turkey, the Israelis would have to go all out in warfare efforts. I would expect Egypt to be crushed as the Israelis could quickly destroy the Suez Canal in several places, wrecking Egypt’s economy for years to come. It could also attack the Aswan Dam and blow it up, unleashing a terribly destructive tsunami of water all the way down the Nile River, destroying countless Egyptian tourist locations and arable lands. Turkey is also hugely vulnerable to an Israeli attack. Its massive Ataturk Dam (and several other dams), hold back the waters of the Euphrates River (see eighth link). If these dams were breached in an Israeli attack in a war provoked by Turkey, the damage to Turkey (and Syria, which is downstream) would be almost incalculable. The Israelis may not even need to use nuclear weapons to accomplish the destruction of the Aswan and Atuturk Dams. These attacks could likely be accomplished successfully with conventional weaponry. If the Saudis and Kuwaitis foolishly joined a war vs. Israel, the Israelis could be expected to utterly destroy the oil-producing capacities and refineries of both nations. This would have very severe ramifications for both the USA and Europe, which need Mideastern oil supplies.
The Bible has a few prophecies worth recalling if Egypt and Turkey are foolish enough to provoke the Israelis into an all-out war. Genesis 49:8-9 prophesies the Israelis (“Judah”) will be like a lion in the latter days with their “hand in the neck of their enemies.” Isaiah 19:7-8 propehsies that “Judah” (the Israelis) “will be a terror to the land of Egypt.” Zechariah 12:2-7 prophesies that God Himself will fight for Judah in the latter days and defend it even if “all the people of the earth be gathered together against it.” So, if a major war breaks out (and I hope that it does not occur), God’s prophecies mean that God’s angelic (and invisible) armies will be fighting alongside the IDF against Egypt, Turkey and whoever else attacks the Israelis.