My October 1 blog post was about the deteriorating situation between Pakistan and the USA. That situation has deteriorated further, placing the USA’s Afghan war in greater jeopardy.
The links below [1, 2] report that attacks occurred on two US/NATO convoys of oil tankers bringing fuel to US/NATO troops in Afghanistan. In one attack, the driver and assistant in one oil rig were “burned alive” by anti-American attackers. This particularly gruesome death was likely meant as a warning to others to refuse to drive supplies to American troops or they could meet the same fate. The second attack was on a much larger scale. The reports indicate that 27 oil tankers in one large convoy bringing fuel to American troops were attacked and destroyed while the other report indicates it was about 30 tankers that were set on fire.
What is especially important is that these attacks occurred far away from the northwest Pakistani border region where pro-Taliban sentiment is strong. These attacks occurred in Baluchistan and Sindh provinces in southernmost Pakistan which were thought to be much safer regions for American/NATO convoys. This means that the anti-American sentiment in Pakistan is spreading to regions not usually thought to be sympathetic to Taliban Islamicists.
These attacks reveal that not only does NATO lack the resources to protect its own supply lines, but that Pakistan is not willing to protect these convoys and supply lines either. Indeed, since Pakistani soldiers died in a recent American military attack, it is even possible that the attackers were out-of-uniform Pakistani soldiers avenging the deaths of their service comrades.
What makes matters worse is the news that American forces just conducted another attack on Pakistani soil, the same tactic that killed three Pakistani soldiers earlier. This is certain to make the angry Pakistani government even angrier at the USA and NATO. While diplomatic types are cited in these reports as saying everything will work out OK between Pakistan and NATO, I don’t see a good ending to this story. Unless the USA continues attacks into Pakistan where Taliban leaders seek refuge, the Afghan war is lost tactically. However, if they continue attacking Pakistani soil and angering Pakistan further, the Afghan war is lost strategically because Pakistan will cease to be an “ally” in the future. Based on Pakistani official comments cited in my October 1 blog, it appears that a point of rupture is drawing near already. Diplomats may paper over this deeply-damaged relationship for a time yet, but this “alliance” appears headed for a divorce in the future.
Let’s talk worst case scenarios. If Pakistan becomes openly hostile to America and firmly shuts down all supply routes to US troops in Afghanistan and even invites Chinese troops to come and help Pakistani troops “seal its border” with Afghanistan, and Russia revokes American overflight privileges to resupply American troops by air routes over Russia and Russian-dominated territory, the American Afghan war is not only lost, but the lives of all American/NATO troops in Afghanistan will be in jeopardy. They would have no resupply routes and be isolated in Afghanistan and surrounded by anti-American nations. They might literally have to fight their way out of Central Asia through Baluchistan to reach friendly evacuation ships on the Arabian Sea. Only so many soldiers and heavy equipment can be flown out of Afghanistan via unfriendly and unsafe air routes. American casualties in retreat could be heavy is they are attacked all along the way by Taliban, Pakistani and Iranian forces.
This could get very ugly, and President Obama would preside over the most ignominious defeat of American forces perhaps ever. Such a scenario would be an American Dunkirk. This may not happen, but the increasingly-violent rift between Pakistan and the USA makes this worst case scenario more possible. If it does happen, it will highlight the reasons why skilled military planners never go to war without a strategic goal, secure flanks and secure lines of supply and retreat. It appears to me that President Obama and his advisors expanded the Afghan War mostly on hubris. This situation is deteriorating quickly, and the tensions may even be worse behind the scenes. If China is offering financial and military help to Pakistan behind the scenes (entirely possible as China is building a large port for the Chinese Navy at Gwadar on Pakistan’s Baluchistani coast), Pakistan no longer needs America’s money or favor. Please re-read my October 1 blog for biblically-relevant prophecies that apply to this American-Pakistani crisis.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101001/ap_on_re_as/as_pakistan
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/01/AR2010100100636.html
