Hopefully, many readers have already heard of Stratfor, an organization which publishes respected geopolitical analysis. The link below offers Stratfor’s analysis of the Iranian military incursion into Iraq which recently occurred. Though it was a small-scale incursion, the fact that it happened at all is significant. Stratfor states that the Iranian incursion was not a “trivial” matter, and that Iran was deliberately sending a message to the U.S. Government that it “may not wait” for the USA and its allies to strike first.
Those who have read my recent blogs about the Persian Gulf/Iran situation know that I have also been making the same point that Stratfor has now made: that Iran may strike first and start a war on its own terms. If you look at it from Iran’s point of view, an Iranian first strike makes a great deal of sense. As Stratfor notes, Iran “faces a ‘use it or lose it’ scenario. It cannot wait until the United States initiates hostilities.” If Iran waits for the USA (or the Israelis) to initiate a war, Iran knows it will lose a substantial amount of its military assets at the start of the war due to punishing U.S. air strikes. Therefore, it makes sound military sense for Iran to strike first and start the war with all of its military assets intact.
Stratfor warns that Iran could interdict the flow of oil through the Straits of Hormuz, and also unleash Hezbollah to start a new war with the Israelis and launch terrorist attacks on American and allied targets. I’ve made these same points in my previous blogs. Stratfor also observes that “Hezbollah is far more sophisticated and effective than Al Queda was at its height…” If Hezbollah goes to war against the Israelis, Americans and Europe, we will likely learn how many “sleeper cells” Hezbollah has placed in gullible western nations. Stratfor also proposes that Iran will try to destabilize Iraq and may even invade Iraq. Iran has Shiite allies inside Iraq which would join forces with any invading Iranian troops. If Iran seizes Iraqi oil facilities at the beginning of a war, it may force the west to destroy Iraqi oil facilities to dislodge Iranian troops from them. If Iranian nuclear facilities are being destroyed in an American and/or Israeli attack, it also makes sense that Iran will attempt to destroy as many Iraqi (and Saudi and Kuwaiti) oil facilities as possible. The Arab nations know this, so they have a motivation to help anyone who attacks Iran.
I invite readers to read the very sensible Stratfor analysis attached below. It makes a good case that Iran and the USA are lurching somewhat unwillingly on both sides toward what may be an increasingly inevitable war. It this war erupts, it could get very ugly all over the world real fast. The removal of Persian Gulf oil from world commerce when western nations need energy supplies for heat in winter would roil energy, financial and commodity markets. Russia, a huge energy exporter, would benefit immensely from the increased oil prices that would result if an Iranian-American and/or an Iranian-Israeli war happens. Russia stands to be one of the big winners in such a war if it can stay on the sidelines.
Finally, Stratfor makes the case that Iran has noticed from Obama’s prolonged indecision about what to do in Afghanistan that Obama is not good in situations where he has to react quickly instead of taking a long time to think about something. That is another reason why Iran might strike first: to force Obama into a decision-making situation where he apparently doesn’t do well. If Iran does decide to strike first, Obama can’t “vote present.” He’ll have to make a lot of tough decisions in very rapid succession. Remember that many of Iran’s leaders actually want a big war because that is the only way they believe their “hidden imam” (an expected Shiite messiah) can emerge openly. Stratfor doesn’t mention this factor, but it also argues that Iran has a religious motivation to strike first.
If Iran strikes first, you better be prepared because essential supplies could start disappearing from store shelves rather quickly if Hezbollah sleeper cells start waging war on Americans and American infrastructure targets on American soil. With that as a possibility, I urge you to read (if you have not already done so) my article entitled “Should Christians Prepare for Future Hard Times?,” available at this website’s articles link.
“This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR“