I was going to blog on a different, and very important issue today, but it will be delayed because of a major international event. No doubt, readers have heard of the plane crash that occurred in Russia. The Polish plane was carrying 97 people, including many of the top government officials of the nation of Poland. Those dead include the Polish President, the Army Chief of State, The National Bank President, the Deputy Foreign Minister, the head of the National Security Office, Presidential Aides, members of Parliament, etc. While Poland’s Constitution sets forth an orderly transfer of power under such tragic circumstances, the Polish government was substantially decapitated in this accident.

The obvious question that many are thinking (but few will articulate) is: “Was this an accident or did Russia cause the crash?” Let’s examine this question, because the answer to this question has huge implications for political and military relations between Russia and all the NATO nations. Let’s consider the political backdrop and examine this from both sides of the question. First let’s examine the case which points a possible finger at Russia.

To begin with, Poland was happy to be free of Soviet oppression when the USSR collapsed, and it joined NATO with enthusiasm. Poland was willing to host an anti-missile system during the term of President George Bush which greatly angered Russia as Russia perceived it as a threat. Poland had also just days before the crash, announced a major find of natural gas on Polish soil (see second link). This was also a threat to Russia as Russia has been able to use its natural gas provider status to manipulate and influence European nations dependent on Russian natural gas supplies. If Poland replaced Russia as a natural gas supplier to European nations, it would make many European nations free of dependence on Russian gas supplies (and threaten a major source of income for Russia). The Polish plane which  crashed was carrying its dignitaries to observe the 70th anniversary of the massacre of 22,000 Polish officers by Russian secret police during World War II. That was a cruel event which has soured Polish-Russian relations ever since it happened, and Russia was surely not thrilled to see the event commemorated at all. Also, the crash occurred over Russia while under the control of Russian air controllers and some would say that Russia had the means, opportunity and motive to crash that plane if they wanted to send a warning to its former Warsaw Pact vassals about cooperating too closely with the USA and NATO. The British government caught Russia assassinating a Russian émigré with a radioactive isotope in the UK not very many years ago so Russia does use assassination as a tool of national policy. Vladimir Putin has taken personal control of the investigation, which guarantees that the Russian investigation will conclude whatever Putin wants it to conclude. All technical data re: the accident is under Russian control. These factors all point suspicions at Russia.

However, there are very strong factors arguing that this was simply a tragic accident. Media reports indicate the plane was an aging TU-154, a Russian-designed aircraft with a high accident rate. The FOX News report below states “early indicators point to pilot error in heavy fog.” I heard one report on Evening TV News channel that the Polish pilot crashed after making several unsuccessful efforts to land the plane before the crash occurred. There is no question that heavy fog can contribute to an accident. For example, remember the highly-publicized safe landing by Captain Sullenberger of an airliner in the Hudson River in New York City when his plane lost power due to bird strikes? Thankfully, he had a beautiful clear day when that happened so he could make a quick visual choice about the safest place to land the plane. If he had the same incident on a foggy day, his plane would have likely crashed into skyscrapers and everyone would have died. The Polish pilot had no visual references to locate a safe landing space in foggy weather if his plane suffered a power loss due to a bird strike or mechanical failure. On the other hand, it is easy to blame crashes on dead pilots who cannot defend themselves or their actions. No doubt, the pilot wanted to live and did all he could do to ensure the survival of everyone on that plane. I cannot help but observe that it was not a wise choice to have so many high officials on one aging airplane. I think there are major corporations which do not allow many top executives to fly to a destination on one plane to ensure that corporate leadership is not decapitated by a single plane crash. Nations would do well to adopt a similar policy.

What do I think happened? While I certainly do not know what caused the crash, my gut tells me this was an accident. It makes no sense to me that the Russian government would arrange the crash of so many leaders of a NATO nation over Russian soil, knowing that such an event would automatically cause millions to suspect that Russia “had something to do with it.” Why would Russia cause an accident over Russian soil where the finger of suspicion would point most heavily at Russia?  If Russia (or any other nation with sophisticated electronic equipment) wanted to cause a plane to crash, it would make far more sense to arrange such a crash in a neutral third-party nation. Presumably, any nation with sophisticated electronic intelligence equipment could arrange such a crash by deploying that equipment anywhere in the world, but it makes no sense for a nation to arrange a crash directed vs. the leadership of another nation over its own soil. Killing off so many leaders of another nation would be a clear act of war, and I doubt Russia had any desire to do this at this time. Russia’s interests, as head of the Gog-Magog alliance prophesied in Ezekiel 38, are to make sure the NATO nations do not wake up to the dangers now increasingly threatening them. Causing such a crash could potentially waken the NATO nations to the aggressive designs of Russian national policy (revealed by God in Ezekiel 38) and cause NATO to aggressively arm itself. That would not be in Russia’s interests so I very strongly doubt that Russia had anything to do with this tragic accident. However, this is a very odd event. While God knows what happened, I’m not sure how many suspicions will be allayed by whatever official report Russia releases on this tragic event.