The news from Ukraine lately is not very encouraging. It appears that the Ukrainians are about to be driven out of the Eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut after a long struggle. This may be an example that Russian forces (aided by mercenaries from a private army aligned with Russia) are beginning to prevail in a long war of attrition in Eastern Ukraine. The stark truth is that Russia is a much bigger nation and has far more troops and weapons factories than Ukraine and its NATO weapons suppliers. The first link and second link are well worth reading. They show that the real situation on the ground in the Russian war of aggression versus Ukraine is looking like Russia could prevail in a continued war of attrition. One link actually predicts that Russia will win this war.
I clearly do not know how this war will unfold, but things do seem to show that the Ukrainian forces are showing signs of exhaustion. Reports are also indicating that the USA and NATO are unable to sustain for much longer an endless supply of weaponry to Ukraine. For the USA or NATO to say they will supply Ukraine “for as long as it takes” is foolish. The hard fact is that the USA and NATO are drawing down their own weaponry reserves at such a pace that they are beginning to “scrape the bottom of the barrel” in terms of what further weaponry they can supply to Ukraine. The third link reports that the USA is having trouble finding the means to continue resupplying Ukraine with continued ammunition and other war material. While Russia, as a dictatorship, can order its factories to produce military supplies for the war, the USA is still in a peace-time mode in its industries and the Biden administration has failed to transition the American economy to a war economy to support the Ukrainians.
The USA is supplying Ukraine with so many weapons that the USA is exhausting the military equipment reserves it needs for not only its own defense, but the possible defense of South Korea, Taiwan and Japan in a war in Indo-China. You can be sure that China is doing its best to keep track of the USA’s rapid reduction of American war reserves so China can decide when it is an opportune time for it to invade Taiwan. There is a stark reality that the more the USA lowers its military reserves, the more likely a Chinese invasion of Taiwan becomes. If China sees the USA has lost its ability to resupply Taiwan in any war, it is likely to invade or enforce an embargo of Taiwan until Taiwan submits. China would also rather invade Taiwan while America still has an elderly president who came into office ordering a cowardly retreat from Afghanistan. If China senses that Biden will not be re-elected president and that he will be replaced with a more vigorous, pro-American president, it may motivate China to attack Taiwan while the USA has a weak president. If the Chinese succeed in sinking a US aircraft carrier and America cannot defend Taiwan, an American defeat there would put the “loser” image on President Biden and his further political chances will be all but doomed.
Consider some of the politics involved in the USA’s support of Ukraine. Joe Biden, aware that he had a foreign policy fiasco when he surrendered to the far-weaker Taliban in Afghanistan and abandoned billions of dollars worth of US equipment there, may now be trying to act “tough” in the Ukraine to counter his initial very weak action. However, if Biden overextends the USA in Ukraine and Russia wins this war outright, Biden will have zero chance to being re-elected president (or even being re-nominated). Some of my previous posts have documented that Japan and Poland are rapidly increasing their military forces and upgrading their military power as they see the USA weaken itself. Poland is becoming the “tank superpower” in Europe and Japan is developing the offensive capability to strike deep into China.
The Ukrainian leadership should be realistic and reach a diplomatic settlement with Russia. There are factors that the media is ignoring. In the fourth link and fifth link are two posts I wrote years ago about the Ukrainian situation. People have forgotten that Ukraine originally had a pro-Russian president who was freely elected. In what many thought was a CIA-sponsored “color revolution,” the pro-Russian president was deposed and a pro-Western president was installed in the Ukraine. An enraged Russia reacted by seizing control of the Crimea and parts of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine where pro-Russian sentiment was real. My posts in the fourth and fifth link were written during the Obama administration so keep in mind that what I penned then did not include an awareness that Donald Trump would become the US president and that he would strengthen the USA and also pressure Europe into rebuilding its flaccid defense forces. In looking at the situation via 2014 perspectives, I predicted Russia would seize the Crimea and Russia did so a short time after I wrote those words. What I want readers of this post to realize is that the pro-Russian feelings in pre-war Eastern Ukraine and in the Crimea were very real and substantial. How else could a pro-Russian candidate have won a Ukrainian national election?
President Zelenskyy of Ukraine needs to realize that he will not be allowed to fight Russia “to the last American tank and bullet.” members of Congress are already voicing worries that the USA has reached its maximum level of ability to resupply Ukraine. Indeed, I thought appropriations bills, according to the US Constitution, had to originate in the US House of Representatives. Biden is clearly “appropriating” mega-billions of military equipment to give to the Ukraine without any vote from Congress to authorize him to do so. Why is Congress allowing Biden to act as if he were a “king” and the Congress was a mere “rubber-stamp” for his actions?
The point is nearing where the USA can afford to send no more military equipment to Ukraine. NATO has little left that it can give. I think Russia is quite aware that this point is nearing. The Ukrainians have been very valiant, but it is now time for them to be realistic. Zelenskyy should obtain a peace settlement that is modeled after the one Finland made with Russia in a war during the early stages of World War II. Russia invaded Finland, which put up a surprisingly strong resistance. However, Finland was realistic and made a peace deal with Russia that surrendered about 10-11% of its territory to Russia while preserving Finnish sovereignty over the vast majority of its pre-war territory. Ukraine needs to do the same thing…while it still can.
While my sympathies are with Ukraine, its leaders must realize its cities are all but destroyed, its people exhausted and the supply of weaponry from the USA and NATO will start to dry up. Ukraine very much needs an end to this war so it can rebuild its cities and infrastructures and minister to its citizens’ many needs.
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