IS THE EU ABOUT TO SPLIT AND RE-ALIGN?

This is a topic I’ve wanted to write about for a while, but other items have delayed my giving it attention in a post. It is an important subject both for current world affairs and biblical prophecy. For decades the EU has been a primary leadership group for many nations in Europe. It began as an economic, free-tariff zone, but in recent years it has increasingly tried to morph itself into a pan-European ruling government. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the European support for Ukraine and Russia’s recent cut-off of energy supplied to Europe just before winter and other factors are now threatening the very existence of the EU itself. It is facing a situation where it may break apart and various nations will realign into new regional factions. The consequences of such a development are huge for the global economy as well as for Eurasian peace and security. Nations in and out of the EU are all affected by this crisis. Let’s look at key factors now in motion.

The first link provides a good overview of the current crisis that is expected to worsen. Russia’s cut-off of natural gas supplies to EU nations affects the EU nations very differently. France is cited as a nation that is relatively more capable of handling this energy cut-off because it has a huge nuclear power base. Germany, on the other hand, is reportedly facing “dire consequences” due to this cut-off. So are the Czech Republic, Austria and Italy. One can expect these nations to start losing interest in supporting Ukraine’s effort to fight off Russia’s invasion–which is surely an intention Russia had in its cut-off of energy exports to Europe. I suspect the UK and Norway will be European nations which are less bothered by the Russia energy cut-off as they have abundant North Sea oil reserves. Germany’s government is having to bring back on line 16 fossil fuel (coal, I assume) plants and extend the life of 11 others to try and keep the lights on in Germany this winter. Germany has coal reserves and they must use those reserves or face a rebellion of their citizens. The situation is complicated by the Green Party being in Germany’s governing coalition, but the Green Party’s agenda will be mostly ignored due to the urgent energy crisis facing Germany. The importance of fossil fuels is now glaringly obvious to all. The link cites US presidents from Reagan to Trump warning Germany about over-dependence on Russian energy. German governments ignored these warnings and Germany is now paying a severe price for ignoring those prescient American warnings.

The EU is being pulled apart by more than energy shortages and different levels of support for helping Ukraine against Russia. Poland is at loggerheads with both Germany and the EU on more than one issue. Poland is especially in a growing confrontation with the Eurocrats of Brussels who are trying to seize federal powers over all EU member states. The second link describes how this dispute goes back to issues dating to the Trump administration. The third link cites a stunning assertion by a Polish leader that Germany is trying to take back from Poland territory lost to Poland after World War II, and that Germany is trying to use the EU to accomplish this German goal. Poland is determined to resist this apparent effort by Germany and expresses its determination to fight any such effort by Germany in rather militaristic language. If this agenda is followed by the EU, Poland may follow the UK out of the EU. Poland should be taken seriously. Poland is on course to become one of the strongest land powers on the planet. It has no intention of being conquered ever again from either the West or East. It has just purchased approximately 1,300 new tanks from the USA and South Korea (fourth link), and it already had a goodly number of tanks and armored vehicles before this purchase.

Poland and the EU are sounding steadily more like they are headed toward a divorce. The fifth link cites the hardening attitudes on both sides over funding issues and Poland’s unwillingness to implement EU directives. It should be noted that the EU directives are intended to subjugate, not serve, the EU’s member nations and force the member nations to adopt Leftist, politically-correct diktats from Brussels. The sixth link reports that Hungary is having the same difficulties with the EU that Poland is experiencing. Clearly, the EU’s heavy-handed bureaucrats are making enemies all across the continent. There is a maxim from ancient times that goes “Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad.” Looking at Europe from across the Atlantic, that maxim fits rather well what is happening in Europe. When the EU bureaucrats ought to be easing up on their dictatorial urges, they are becoming even more onerous on EU member states. Their heavy-handed policies can only serve to drive some nations out of the EU in the current severe crises of the Ukraine War, refugee problems, a very cold winter without sufficient energy, etc. If this continues, the EU could start to split apart and realign into new blocs. Poland is a historic ally of the British, and if Poland leaves the EU, I expect it will quickly align with the UK in a new trade union. Other states will likely follow.

The seventh link warns of a “catastrophic winter” ahead for Germany and many EU nations due to Russia’s energy cut-off of natural gas. The eighth link warns that “5-10 terrible winters” may be facing the EU nations before they can get firm energy supplies in place. Germany’s situation is among the worst faced by European nations. If German and European citizens turn on the light switches and nothing happens and if they activate their heaters and nothing happens, the EU will be facing a systemic revolt throughout Europe. The ninth link examines the fading reputation of former German Chancellor, Angela Merkel. She, more than any other leader in Europe, is responsible for the foolish policies of trusting Russia to be a peaceful partner which would honor its energy contracts with European nations. The Russian invasion of Ukraine shows Merkel’s view of Russia being a peaceful partner were foolish in the extreme. Merkel’s government virtually disarmed Germany so Germany has “soft power,” but almost no “hard power” at all. History has long shown that “soft power” (economic, commercial, diplomatic influence) has no real effect in a severe crisis unless soft power is backed up by “hard power “( sheer military muscle). Germany is a commercial giant in Europe, but in military terms, it is an anorexic nation.

There are many factors now which are steadily pushing the EU toward a break-up. Amos 3:3 states an inexorable truth: “Can two walk together except they be agreed?” This states an immutable truth that if two persons or nations are not in agreement, they will inevitably take separate paths. Apply this to the EU and consider this question: “Can 27 EU nations walk together except they be agreed?” Obviously, the forces pushing the EU nations apart are now greater than those holding them together. I saw a media report recently that the EU is considering a plan to implement EU directives by majority vote instead of by unanimous votes. If that happens, expect many smaller nations to leave the EU because they would have no more power or national sovereignty left if they stay in the EU.

While the EU is in danger of splitting apart, NATO has shown itself to be a stronger and more unified alliance than anyone expected it to be in the wake of the Russian-Ukrainian war. All nations in Europe have had to face the fact that in the face of a Russian invasion, the EU can do nothing to protect them, but NATO can be capable of defending them. Do the Baltic and Eastern European nations, faced with a possible Russian invasion, ask for more American and NATO military forces to be stationed on their territories or do they request more paper-pushing EU Eurocrats? Obviously, the answer is the former option. Anti-tank weaponry from the USA, the UK and Sweden have shown to be very superior to Russian tanks and armored vehicles. This has given NATO much more military credibility in the eyes of all nations. Thanks to superior American/Western military weaponry, smaller Ukraine is essentially fighting much larger Russia to a draw at present.

The above matters have strong biblical prophetic implications. Biblical scholars who follow prophecy have long looked for a “beast” power to emerge in Europe which will have “seven heads and ten horns” (Revelation 13:1-5, 17:1-18). That is cryptic imagery and it is subject to varying interpretations. Does it mean ten nations or leaders of which seven are more powerful? Does it mean ten nations and seven overall leaders? How many of the “heads” have horns and how many have more than one or none at all? The prophetic imagery doesn’t answer these questions. I’d also like to point out one item which is rarely considered. If the ten heads mean nations, are we to count “nations”‘ according to modern map-lines or do we count according to how God counts the nations? For example, in the Western world, the USA, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand (the Five-Eye alliance) are five nations, but according to biblical terminology, they would all constitute just one nation called “Joseph” in Genesis 49:22-26. Readers of my books and articles will understand this statement easily, but for those unfamiliar with biblical terminology, I recommend reading my articles: The USA in Biblical Prophecy and The Tribe of Joseph in the Modern World. If you read these articles, your eyes will be opened concerning what is really happening in the modern world and what has happened throughout world history.

Biblical scholars have typically looked at Europe in recent centuries for the fulfillment of latter-day prophecies. That was understandable as European nations dominated the world via their empires on other continents. However, over the last 70 years, the empires disappeared and the world now is a multi-polar entity with powerful nations in the Indo-Pacific region and Mideastern world (China, India, Japan, Israel, Pakistan, etc). which eclipse many former European powers in military and economic strength. Since the end-time “beast” power is prophesied to have global sway (Revelation 13:1-7, 12-18), those of us who follow biblical prophecy need to consider non-European nations as being possible members of the “seven heads and ten horns” of the final beast alliance. The EU is at risk of coming apart, and if it splits, the fate of the Euro currency unit will be in serious doubt–creating a possible global economic crisis in valuations in all markets. The internal fissuring of the EU could have major prophetic implications, and we need to watch this situation carefully. We Christians need to humbly acknowledge that “we don’t know it all,” and be ready to see if God fulfills his prophecies in an entirely unexpected manner. We need to be ready to ditch our preconceived notions and dogmas if God decides to go in a different direction than we have been expecting.

My thanks to a reader who drew my attention to some of the links cited in this post.

IS THE EU ABOUT TO SPLIT AND RE-ALIGN?

Categories

Recent Posts

Archives