August 13, 2008
World geopolitical events are making it abundantly clear that the Superpower confrontations that typified the Cold War are now back as strong as ever. The widespread Russian invasion of pro-Western Georgia not only signals that Russia now feels strong enough to assert itself militarily against the western powers (see previous blog at this site), but the Russian invasion may also be a warning to the West that there will be a high price to pay if the USA attacks Iran. Russia’s diplomats are saying that a cease-fire has been reached in the Georgian war, but media reports indicate that Russian armored columns are still advancing deeper into Georgia. I sense that Russia’s diplomats are telling the ever-gullible western diplomats whatever they want to hear even as Russia does whatever it wants on the ground.
A cease-fire may be obtained, but Russia has made two points very clear: (A) it has drawn a red-line indicating that Russia will no longer retreat from the West and (B) Russia can easily cut off or control all the gas piplelines out of Asia into Europe whenever it wants to do so. The strategic gas pipeline which brings Caspian gas to the West via Georgia is now effectively under Russian control. Russia’s military forces are very close to that pipeline and they can seize or sabotage it at will. They are likely to do so if Iran is attacked. Now let’s discuss the growing, but related, crisis in the Mideast.
Despite recent US diplomatic assurances indicating the USA had lost interest in striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, the first link below indicates the USA is now building up a massive naval force in the waters controlling access to the Persian Gulf. The second link was a blog sent to me by a reader of this website, and while the blog has its own “attitude” and I offer a strong disclaimer that I disassociate myself from all comments expressed by various readers of that blog, I am attaching it for readers of my site to review for several key reasons. First, It has the most detailed listing of individual US naval ships now being assembled for a possible confrontation with Iran, and the US fleet will be so large that it is evident that a major war is possible. Second, it claims that the Russians have a “plasma” device which can create an invisibility cloak around their airplanes (I will have more to say about this possibility in a later blog as the USA also likely has this same ability and my previous blogs have addressed this topic). Third, it reports that the Israelis have approximately 1,000 military advisors fighting alongside the Georgians against the Russians (it includes comments on this development from the Debka.com website which is often a good source of information about Mideast and world developments). The Russians surely know that they are fighting Israelis as well as Georgians and this complicates how a western strike on Iran could unfold. Again, this second link expresses opinions different from mine on a number of issues so I urge readers to realize that I am not endorsing the opinions and perspectives expressed at that blog site. I am providing it as a source of raw information to readers of my site. Finally, the blog cited below asserts the Iranians also have an advanced bioweapons program with which they can strike population centers in the western world. This is consistent with a blog I posted very recently that Iran likely had a secret bioweapons program. Contrary to the opinions stated in the blog cited below, I think the existence of an advanced Iranian bioweapons program could provide a double justification for the West to strike Iranian WMD development sites (bioweapons and nuclear weapons in the hands of Iran’s leader who has openly stated his intention to “wipe Israel off the map” creates an existential threat to the Israelis and a very serious threat to all western nations).
Also included below the attached links is the text of an August 12, 2008 report from the debka.com website which adds more information to the developing confrontation in the Mideast. This report was sent to me by another reader of my website. It notes that the last time the US amassed this large a naval force in the region, it was just before the 2003 American invasion of Iraq. It also suggests that the USA may intend to impose a naval embargo on shipments of important cargoes to Iran, and that such an embargo could trigger an Iranian blockade of oil shipments to the West via the Straits of Hormuz. Such actions could easily lead to a widespread war in which Iran and its Hezbollah/Syrian allies attack US interests in the Mideast and around the world. Iran could easily unleash Hezbollah to launch more missile attacks against the Israelis, and the Sunni Gulf States would be forced to “choose sides” knowing that their choice will determine who opens fire upon them and who will defend them. If Hezbollah attacks the Israelis, I expect the Israelis to launch a punishing attack against Iran.
Russia has supplied the Iranians with the nuclear facilities which would be targeted by a US and/or Israeli attack, and, given the Russian military action in Georgia, I do not think they will stand idly by while Iran is attacked. At the very least, I expect Russia to cut off gas and energy shipments to all NATO nations by shutting down or sabotaging all pipelines to Europe with their Spetznaz units, and they would very likely seize all of Georgia and possibly install a pro-Russian leader in the Ukraine. Russia’s elite Spetznaz units may even launch “terrorist” attacks upon western targets knowing that Iran and Al Queda will be blamed. Armed conflict between Russian and US units is possible if this boils over. China will not be idle while warfare disrupts its supply of Mideast oil supplies. If a Mideast War erupts, it would be an ideal time for China to attack Taiwan as the US fleet would be deployed elsewhere and unable to come to Taiwan’s rescue. Japan could not remain idle if its vital oil supplies were jeopardized. If the USA and Sunni Arab nations do not allow Israeli planes to attack Iran via Iraqi and Arab airspace, the Israelis may have no choice but to attack Iran with nuclear weapons in a first strike option. The third link below (also sent to me by a reader) attempts to enable westerners to see this current crisis through Russian eyes, and it is worth reading as well.
All the above are possibilities, not certainties. The Cold War had many such crises (the Cuban Missile crisis, several Israeli-Arab wars, etc.), but all were resolved short of open warfare between Russia and the USA. Odds are that this crisis will be defused before such open warfare erupts, but there are no guarantees on anything. We are entering a period of world history of unprecedented risks and dangers.
Jesus Christ prophesied in Matthew 24:6 that the end times would feature “wars and rumors of wars.” This is happening. Paul warned in II Timothy 3:1 that “perilous times” would befall the nations at the end of our age. This has happened. Ezekiel 38 prophesied that Russia, China and Iran would form an alliance which would eventually start a climactic World War III in the latter days by attacking all the nations descended from the ten tribes of Israel and their allies (readers of my books, articles and blogs have seen the abundant biblical and secular evidence that many nations in NATO and the EU constitute the ten tribes of Israel in the modern world). The global alliances prophesied in Ezekiel 38 are now in place. Some of my articles on prophecy (see “A New Look at Prophecy”) have offered scenarios whereby many of the prophesies in Daniel 11 could have been fulfilled by the US-Iraqi wars of 1991 and 2003. However, I am not rigid in my views as I always examine world events in light of biblical prophesies to see how God is fulfilling those prophesies. If a major shift occurs, I will note it. We may be on the verge of a major end-time Mideast war which will fulfill Daniel 11’s prophecies to a greater degree than the 1991 and 2003 wars did, but we will have to wait and see. Biblical prophecies give us the overall framework of how events will unfold, but they do not give us all the details re: how all the prophesies will be fulfilled.
At some point, we will have Armageddon in the future, but I think we are not there yet. The Two Witnesses (see article on this subject at this website) have not yet appeared on the world scene, and they must fulfill a three and 1/2 year mission prophesied for them in Revelation 11 before this age ends. The Bible does not give us an exact year when “the end” will come, but it does tell us in advance how the final chapter of this age will unfold. If you wish to read how this age will draw to a conclusion, I invite you to read my article: “What Ezekiel 38-39 Reveals about a Future World War III.” With Russia again becoming militaristic and anti-American, this article has ever-increasing applicability and credibility.
Three major US naval strike forces due this week in Persian Gulf
DEBKAfile Special Report
August 12, 2008, 10:04 PM (GMT+02:00)
New America armada around Iran
New America armada around Iran
DEBKAfile’s military sources note that the arrival of the three new American flotillas will raise to five the number of US strike forces in Middle East waters â€“ an unprecedented build-up since the crisis erupted over Iran’s nuclear program.
This vast naval and air strength consists of more than 40 carriers, warships and submarines, some of the last nuclear-armed, opposite the Islamic Republic, a concentration last seen just before the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Our military sources postulate five objects of this show of American muscle:
1. The US, aided also by France, Britain and Canada, is finalizing preparations for a partial naval blockade to deny Iran imports of benzene and other refined oil products. This action would indicate that the Bush administration had thrown in the towel on stiff United Nations sanctions and decided to take matters in its own hands.
2. Iran, which imports 40 percent of its refined fuel products from Gulf neighbors, will retaliate for the embargo by shutting the Strait of Hormuz oil route chokepoint, in which case the US naval and air force stand ready to reopen the Strait and fight back any Iranian attempt to break through the blockade.
3. Washington is deploying forces as back-up for a possible Israeli military attack on Iran’s nuclear installations.
4. A potential rush of events in which a US-led blockade, Israeli attack and Iranian reprisals pile up in a very short time and precipitate a major military crisis.
5. While a massive deployment of this nature calls for long planning, its occurrence at this time cannot be divorced from the flare-up of the Caucasian war between Russia and Georgia. While Russia has strengthened its stake in Caspian oil resources by its overwhelming military intervention against Georgia, the Americans are investing might in defending the primary Persian Gulf oil sources of the West and the Far East.
DEBKAfile’s military sources name the three US strike forces en route to the Gulf as the USS Theodore Roosevelt , the USS Ronald Reagan and the USS Iwo Jima . Already in place are the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea opposite Iranian shores and the USS Peleliu which is cruising in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden