Hang on to your hats, folks. We may be about to witness a major war in the Mideast….again. The radical Islamic Jihadi army known as ISIL (about which I have posted before) has launched a major offensive against the central government of Iraq and the Iraqi army appears to be collapsing before the ISIL onslaught. I urge you to watch the FoxNews report in the first link. It is an excellent presentation on what is happening as the nation of Iraq disintegrates before our eyes. It includes a map showing how much of Syria and Iraq has now fallen under the control of the radical Jihadi ISIL army. ISIL attacked Mosul, Iraq’s largest northern city, and drove out the Iraqi forces quickly. Indeed, the Iraqi forces appear to be abandoning their weapons as they flee, giving considerable US-provided military hardware to the ISIL army. The ISIL offensive is spreading fast as ISIL forces have also occupied Saddam Hussein’s home city, Tikrit, according to recent reports.
The first link reports that the ISIL army, which previously seized Fallujah from the Iraqi government, is now only 70 miles from Baghdad and is driving southward from its new northern conquests. This could turn into a wider war quickly. It may be that the only thing which will save any of the Iraqi central government will be the military intervention of Iran, which does not want to lose its client Shiite ally in the Iraqi central government. Iran could send its Revolutionary Guard forces into Iraq to prop up al-Maliki, the present leader of what is left of the Iraqi central government. However, Turkey may invade the old territory of Iraq from the north. ISIL’s invasion severely jeopardizes the recent oil alliance that was formed between Turkey and what is essentially Kurdistan, in the north of Iraq. If ISIL can cut off the flow of oil from Kurdistan to Turkey to eventual European customers, Turkey and Kurdistan will lose a lot of money and Europe will lose a critical oil supply. Neither Turkey nor Kurdistan desire any such outcome. All Turkey needs is a reason to invade Iraq from the north to wage war on ISIL. Turkey reportedly now has that reason.
The second link, from the Turkish media, reports that ISIL forces have seized 80 Turkish citizens, attacked the Turkish consulate in Mosul, kidnapped Turkish diplomats (including Turkey’s Consul-General) and are holding them hostage. If true, Turkey now has every reason to invade the ISIL-occupied region of Iraq and wipe out the ISIL forces. If Turkey invades from the north, expect the Kurdish Peshmerga military forces to attack ISIL from the east, protecting the Turkish flank and expanding the portion of Iraq under Kurdish control. ISIL denies the kidnapping, but the Turkish government is holding high-level emergency meetings and calling the situation “unacceptable.” Turkish military intervention is possible, as the link notes. Indeed, Turkey has stated that Turkish military intervention is certain if a particular tomb important to Turkish history is attacked. Most interestingly, the second link adds that Kurdish Peshmerga forces intervened to protect at least some of the Turkish consulate staff. This confirms the de facto Turkish-Kurdish alliance that has formed recently.
If Turkey’s military intervenes, will it attack ISIL forces only in the old Iraqi region or will it attack ISIL forces in the territory that once was part of Syria too? We don’t know. The third link reports that Turkey has already built an 800-kilometer fence along Turkey’s southern border to keep the chaos and violence in Syria out of Turkey. If Turkey intervenes, it may decide to wipe out ISIL forces wherever they are.
Turkey is also a NATO member which could quickly result in other NATO members helping Turkish military forces. Perhaps it is only a coincidence that the USA has sent five B-2 stealth bombers to Europe. Two more B-2s have just joined the three already there (third link). If Turkey intervenes in Iraq, perhaps it will receive some major heavy bomber support from US B-2s.
This could quickly develop into a regional war. If Turkey attacks from the north and Iran sends military forces into Iraq to support the Shiite central government of Iraq, Saudi Arabia may intervene as well–sending forces into Southern Iraq to protect Sunni Arab tribes aligned with Saudi interests. Of course, the situation may get resolved and a wider war will be averted. However, the more territory ISIL seizes in the Mideast, the more likely it becomes that surrounding nations will wage war against it. ISIL has become a cancer that is metastasizing in the region. One thing is clear: if Turkey wants to intervene militarily, it apparently has a justifiable reason for attacking ISIL already.
Biblically, what we are continuing to see is the herding of nations and tribes into the final alliance configurations that were prophesied for them in Ezekiel 38-39 to occur in the latter days prior to World War III. Who would have guessed a few years ago that the Turks and Kurds would become allies in the region? It is also worth noting that although the US military decisively won the war when it invaded Iraq under President George Bush Jr. years ago, the US diplomats and political leaders have subsequently just as decisively “lost the peace.”
My thanks to a reader for sending me the third link!