Yesterday’s blog was about the strong Saudi-American action to send a message to Iran and its implications for Mideast alliances. Today’s blog offers a glimpse into Iran’s perspective on the Mideast, and why Iran is so confident.
The first link documents that Iran has a very powerful backer who will provide all the support Iran wants and needs. That backer is China. The article, from the Washington Times, details the many kinds of weaponry that China is supplying to Iran. Many types of Chinese-designed cruise missiles are being shipped to Iran. Indeed, so much Chinese technology re: anti-ship cruise missiles has been transferred to Iran that Iran now has its own production lines “turning these weapons [cruise missiles] out in large numbers.” China is also transferring to Iran sophisticated equipment which is specifically designed to produce nuclear weapons. The “pressure transducers,” “gas diaphragm gauges,” and “gas centrifuges” are designed to “produce enriched, weapons-grade uranium.”
Iran’s Chinese connection makes it inevitable that any international “sanctions” against Iran will be totally useless. China has immense financial reserves and growing geopolitical clout. It can buy on the open or black markets anything which Iran wants or needs and quickly transfer it to Iran. Chinese aircraft could easily overfly the airspace of the Central Asian nations which used to be part of the USSR to deliver anything air-transportable to Iran. Heavier items will go via Chinese ships. China is openly supporting Iran, but other nations in the Gog-Magog alliance are helping Iran as well. The article reports that there has been an “underground railroad” of Russian and Ukrainian scientists who have traveled to Iran on tourist visas even though they were traveling to Iran to assist Iran in “numerous Iranian weapons-development programs.” Russian and Chinese help has enabled Iran to “move toward self-sufficiency in the production of ballistic missiles.” Russia might give public lip-service to sanctions against Iran, but that lip-service will not control what really happens behind the scenes.
Iran has nothing to fear from international sanctions as it pursues very rapid development in cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. Iran is especially pursuing a very large arsenal of anti-ship missiles to use against US and western warships and commercial ships in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea. It is clear that Iran intends to fire an immense number of cruise missiles at the military and civilian ships of the USA, western nations and Arab Sunni nations if a war breaks out in the Mideast. How many hundreds of cruise missiles can US and NATO warships shoot down before they run out of defensive munitions? If US warships can defend against only a few hundred missiles, then they are all not likely to survive if Iran fires thousands of cruise missiles at them. Iran’s strategy will be overwhelm US naval defenses with more incoming cruise missiles than the US warships can possibly shoot down. The survivability of US warships in any Persian Gulf war may depend on how many Iranian cruise missile launchers US Navy and US Air Force warplanes can destroy in the first minutes of any such war.
The second link describes another Iranian method of attacking US Navy (and allied) warships. Iran is building speedboats based on a British design which can travel at 61.5 mph. The Iranians are reportedly planning on arming these speedboats with torpedoes which can travel 360 mph. Most oddly, the second link reports that “in January, 2009, US special forces stood ready to intercept the Iranian merchant vessel carrying it …[to Iran], but the operation was called off for some unknown reason.” That month was when the reins of power were handed from President George Bush to President Obama. Did President Obama cancel the operation and allow Iran to build another weapons system which could sink American ships? Or did President Bush cancel the operation? We don’t know. It is evident that Iran intends to fire so many cruise missiles and torpedoes at American warships that they cannot possibly defend against all of them. Iran already has many small ships which can fire missiles and torpedoes at American warships. The British-designed speedboat would simply be one more tool in Iran’s arsenal. That design is also likely to be so low-in-the-water that it will be difficult for radar to detect them.
If China and Russia have promised to help Iran rebuild and replace anything the USA and the West destroy in any warfare, then Iran likely could care less about what its losses might be in a war. Indeed, China and Russia might be eager to have such a war occur so they can test their latest weaponry against American and western missiles, warships and aircraft in a proxy conflict. What if Iran does lose its nuclear facilities in a western strike? If China has privately told Iran that it will simply transfer dozens of off-the-shelf Chinese nukes to Iran after such a war, Iran has nothing to lose by going to war. Indeed, if Iran strikes first with salvos of numerous cruise missiles and torpedoes, the war could go rather badly for the western alliance.