A few days ago, I posted a warning that an Iranian attack upon Israel was likely imminent. A day later, the Iranian attack occurred, and it was much larger than anyone expected it would be. News sources report varying totals but the estimates conclude that Iran fired 320-370 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and “suicide” drones at Israeli targets. Specific estimates assert that Iran fired somewhat over 100 ballistic missiles in that total–a very large number, indeed! The first link shows one Iranian ballistic missile which was shot down with a 36-foot section of it still intact. Were all 100+ Iranian ballistic missiles this large?

The Iranian attack vs. Israel failed…miserably. Undoubtedly, Iran expected that at least some of the missile and drone barrage would penetrate Israeli defenses and cause considerable damage. Instead, the Iranian missiles and drones were shown to be considerably inferior to the Israel and allied defenses. During the attack’s media coverage, I was amazed to learn that the suicide drones fired by Iran were so slow that they would take “hours” to reach Israel from their Iranian launch points. One report stated that the Iranian drones flew at only about 110-125 mph. At that slow a speed, warplanes vectored toward the approaching drones were able to enjoy a “turkey shoot” as they shot down the Iranian drones which were too primitive a weapon to be used against Israel. Israel’s multi-layered air defense systems shot down many cruise missiles and ballistic missiles as well.

Israel also had considerable help from some allies! Media reports indicate that Israel had help from the USA, the UK, France, Jordan and Saudi Arabia in downing an estimated 99% of the incoming Iranian missiles and drones. The second link estimates that the USA shot down approximately 80 Iranian drones and six ballistic missiles. The third link, fourth link and fifth link report that Saudi Arabia and other Middle East states (such as the Emirates) also assisted Israel. It is not entirely clear what they did, but it surely included giving information to Israel and the USA concerning the launch points of the Iranian missiles as they were being fired by the Iranians. The sixth link reports that the Jordanian Air Force shot down “dozens” of the Iranian drones as they were crossing Jordanian air space toward Israel. I’m not sure what contributions France and the UK made in the effort to defend Israel. Significantly, all the Arab nations assisting the defense against the Iranian attack were Sunni Arab nations. This fact does indicate that it is likely that Saudi Arabia and Israel will soon normalize diplomatic relations between their nations and that more Sunni Arab nations will then join the Abraham Accords–the effort launched by President Trump to draw the Israelis and Sunni Arab nations together.

Now, the question is: What will Israel do to retaliate against this massive Iranian attack targeting Israel’s nation? As I am writing this, Israel has not yet responded to the attack, but says that it will retaliate at a time and in a manner of Israel’s choosing (seventh link). President Biden has urged the Israelis to “declare victory” and do nothing. Biden has also told the Israeli government that while the USA helped defend Israel from attack, the USA will not help Israel if it chooses to attack Iran. Given the scale of the Iranian attack against Israel and given the obvious fact that Iran intended to inflict great harm on the Israeli nation, “doing nothing” hardly seems like an option that Israel will consider.

The eighth link analyzes some of the options which Israel might select in retaliating vs. Iran. Israel has some obvious high-value Iranian targets. Undoubtedly, Israel knows where the Iranian nuclear weapons and ballistic missile factories/facilities are located. Those would be of primary targeting importance as those are the weapons systems that Iran would use to try to “wipe Israel off the map” in any future attack. I’d like to discuss some other targets which would devastate Iran’s economy and would deprive Iran of the ability to earn billions of dollars to support its terrorist proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, the Houthis, etc.) in the Mideast. Iran is currently shipping lots of oil to other nations. The eighth link includes a photo showing how massive the oil-exporting facilities are at Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf–an Iranian island used to load oil tankers full of Iranian crude. If the Israelis and perhaps other allied nations heavily bombed that oil-loading facility, it would take it out of action for a long time. Iran knows how vulnerable the Kharg Island facility is so it has built an alternative oil-exporting facility on the Gulf of Oman coastline (ninth link), in the southeastern part of Iran. Israel could choose to take out this facility at the same time it destroys the Kharg Island oil-shipping port.

 If Israel chooses to attack all the above-named targets in a massive counter-strike, it will effectively wreck the ability of Iran to function as a nation. I tend to doubt that Israel will choose this most aggressive option as Iran would almost surely order Hezbollah to fire many of its estimated 100-150,000 missiles and rockets at Israeli targets from Hezbollah bases in southern Lebanon. If Hezbollah fires that many rockets and missiles at Israel, Israeli defenders will have only minutes or seconds to defend against them. Israel might have a hard time even getting its warplanes into the sky to fight off that attack. Expect significant damage to Israel if an all-out war erupts on the Hezbollah-Israeli border. Such a devastating war there may cause more damage than either side wishes to sustain. Therefore, Israel will likely choose retaliatory measures to hit Iranian targets but not escalate to the point that Hezbollah is fully unleashed. Under international law, there is no question that having fended off a massive attack from Iran, Israel has every right to fight back against Iran.

There are other political factors at play here. While the UN is historically anti-Jewish, there is no way the UN can avoid condemning the Iranian attack against Israel. Israel may wait until the UN Security Council passes a resolution against Iran before attacking Iran. However, since Russia and China have a veto in Security Council resolutions, Israel might attack sooner rather than later if it appears Russia and China will veto a meaningful resolution against Iran. Another huge issue looms over the global economy in how Israel retaliates against Iran. If Israel destroys Iran’s ability to ship oil, it will raise world oil prices very quickly and to a level people everywhere are not currently able to visualize. The oil price shock would be so great that it could easily cost President Biden his re-election bid and help President Trump. Trump could, quite correctly, say he had made the USA energy-independent and that American gas prices would not be rising so much if Biden hadn’t made policy decisions to make the USA dependent on foreign oil imports. Is it any wonder the Biden administration is trying desperately to prevent Israel from doing anything to retaliate vs. Iran?  It will be hard for the Biden administration to make that case though, because Iran intended to do to the Israelis what the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor did to the USA. That Iran’s weaponry was surprisingly inferior does not change the fact Iran intended to do great harm to Israel. I do not see how Israel can “do nothing.”

In a number of posts over the years, I’ve cited Zephaniah 2, Genesis 49:8-12 and Zechariah 12 and 14 as prophesying that the Israelis (“Judah” or “Jews”) will be generally victorious in their latter-day wars and that the Creator God will not permit the Israeli nation to be destroyed. The radical Leftists chanting “From the river to the sea” in their demonstrations will never have their desire granted as they have made themselves into enemies of God’s purposes. The prophecies do not say the Israelis will never lose a battle; they almost lost the Yom Kippur War in 1973 and the Israelis were “caught napping” when Hamas defeated the Israeli defenses on the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel. Zechariah 14:1-2 and Revelation 16:12-16 prophesy that massive battles will be raging on Israeli soil at the end of this age when Jesus Christ/the Messiah returns to rescue them…and everyone else…from destruction.

Currently, Israel has a window of opportunity to attack Iran as hard as it wishes to do so. That window will not stay open indefinitely.

 

  1. https://www.foxnews.com/video/6351032322112
  2. https://thejewishvoice.com/2024/04/us-shot-down-over-80-drones-six-ballistic-missiles/
  3. https://thejewishvoice.com/2024/04/new-middle-east-saudis-and-emiratis-come-to-israels-defense/
  4. https://thejewishvoice.com/2024/04/saudi-arabia-defended-israel-from-incoming-iranian-missiles-report/
  5. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/saudi-arabia-acknowledges-helping-defend-israel-against-iran-797201
  6. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/jordanian-jets-shot-down-dozens-of-iranian-drones-flying-toward-israel-sources-say/
  7. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68814391?at_campaign_type=owned&at_medium=emails&at_objective=awareness&at_ptr_type=email&at_ptr_name=salesforce&at_campaign=newsbriefing&at_email_send_date=20240415&at_send_id=4070415&at_link_title=https%3a%2f%2fwww.bbc.co.uk%2fnews%2fworld-middle-east-68814391&at_bbc_team=crm
  8. https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/to-prevent-wider-war-in-the-middle-east-choke-off-irans-oil-sales
  9. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/22/iran-opens-oil-terminal-to-bypass-strategic-strait-of-hormuz