The situation in the Mideast is, paradoxically, growing both more dangerous and more stable at the same time. That is not unusual for Mideast geopolitics which are in a state of regular ferment.
Readers are likely aware that the Syrian civil war is growing more bloody and unpredictable in its outcome. Syria’s President Assad seems to be on the edge of falling from power, but his allies are not at all ready to concede that outcome. The first link reports that Iran has sent 50,000 soldiers from its own military forces and Hezbollah’s forces to prop up Assad. Hezbollah is, of course, Iran’s client state that governs southern Lebanon. The link reports that this foreign force propping up Assad may grow to 100,000 fighters. This infusion of foreign support for Assad will buy him some time, but the Sunni Moslem Arabs throughout Syria, Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, etc. will surely resent the presence of so many Shiite Iranian or Iranian-backed fighters in the middle of a Sunni region. This action creates more instability in Syria, and the presence of so many Iranian and Hezbollah soldiers may herald an Iranian plan to carve out an Iranian-backed portion of Syria to remain in existence even if Assad falls. This plan, if successful, would give Iran a continuing means of resupplying weapons and fighters to reinforce its client Hezbollah state in southern Lebanon. If this happens, Iran (and Russia) can afford to lose Assad.
The second link and third link report divergent views about the rapprochement that is occurring between Israel and Turkey as a result of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu calling Turkey’s Prime Minister Erdogan to apologize for the Israeli role in the loss of Turkish lives when a flotilla of ships tried to approach Gaza several years ago. This event caused a major rent in Israeli-Syrian relations. The second link (a Chinese media source) has a more glowing report about the outcome of this apology. It states that Turkey has agreed to restore normal relations with Israel as a result of Netanyahu’s action. However, the third link (from the Israeli press) is not nearly so sanguine in its analysis so we will have to wait to see what results from the Netanyahu phone call to Erdogan, but, at a minimum, it is a solid step toward normalizing Israeli-Turkish relations and that is a positive outcome all by itself.
The final link also represents a positive stabilizing trend in the Mideast. For many years, Turkey has fought a low-level war with PKK Kurdish rebel forces in the eastern region of Turkey. As I noted in a recent post, relations between Turkey and the largely-independent Kurdish region of northern Iraq have been steadily improving and these entities are even making direct business deals on energy development together. The leader of the PKK, a prisoner of the Turks, has called for an end to Turkish-PKK fighting and the resolution of any Turkish-Kurdish differences via peaceful means. This is a huge development in Mideast politics. An end to fighting and bloodshed between Turks and Kurds and a new status where they not only achieve peaceful relations but also work toward an actual regional partnership would be a major stabilizing force in the Mideast and it would be a large boon for the West as Turkey is a NATO member and the Kurds have tilted toward the West as well.
If the Iranians and Hezbollah create a new puppet state of their own backed by Iran out the ruins of the old Syria, it will create a Shiite-ruled enclave in the middle of many Sunni nations who will not only resent its presence but also make them more hostile toward Shiite Iran. If such a Shiite enclave comes into existence, I suspect it will include the Syrian port along the Mediterranean coast which hosts a base for the Russian navy. Russia and Iran (two members of the Gog-Magog alliance of Ezekiel 38-39) do not want to lose that Syrian port access for the Russian navy. If this Syrian sea-base is lost to Russia, it will turn the Mediterranean Sea into a mostly NATO/Western zone.
The developments described in these links continue to reflect the political jockeying that will determine which Mideast nations will be allied to the Gog-Magog alliance of Russia, China and Iran and which nations will be in the western alliance dominated by the modern nations of the house of Israel, other nations also descended from the ancient patriarch, Abraham and their prophesied allies.
[NOTICE TO READERS: My computer crashed for about five days and I am now just recently back on-line after a technician fixed it. My approximately 10 year-old Dell computer may need replacement soon.]