HOW TRUMP'S ELECTION MAY AFFECT THE ONGOING MIDEAST AND RUSSIA-UKRAINE WARS

While I’m sure the election of Donald Trump will affect many things in global geopolitics, this post is intended to focus on the two on-going and seemingly unending wars in the Mideast and in the Ukraine-Russia theaters of conflict. I think Trump will have a major effect on both wars, and he has a decent chance of facilitating an end to these wars. Donald Trump is a dominating person; he is a force of nature. He comes to the presidency convinced God saved his life in the assassination attempt which saw him shot in the ear instead of the head. He has credited God in many speeches and he stated he believes God spared his life for a purpose. Personally, I think he is right in both those beliefs.

After Joe Biden’s presidency characterized by increasing senility, Trump’s dominant and energetic personality will be even more impressive than it usually would be because he will show “America is back” on the world scene. Let’s look at these two on-going wars to see how they might be brought to an end.

Let’s take the Mideast war first. It pits Iran and its proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis) versus the Jewish nation of Israel. The first link reports the leader of Iran making a threat that Iran will launch a third major attack against Israel. Iran has tried to hit Israel hard twice, but Israel’s defensive weaponry was too good for Iran’s missiles and drones. There were many reports that the Biden administration put immense pressure on Israel to hit Iran with a lesser blow than was desired after Iran’s second missile barrage. I think that reflected the Biden administration’s desire to have Israel not attack Iran in a way that damaged Iran’s oil and nuclear programs before the US election. The US has warned Iran that if Iran attacks Israel a third time, Israel’s response will be “unrestrained” (second link). I agree with that assessment, but it does seem odd to me that the US government is so protective of Iran. There are reports that if another Iranian strike is launched vs. Israel, it will use bigger Iranian warheads and that it may be launched from somewhere in Iraq (a vassal state of Iran) so Israel’s defenses have much less time to respond (third link and fourth link). The fourth link also opines that Iran may choose to launch its next large attack between the US election date and the transition to the Trump administration on January 20, 2025. If that is a true report, it could come any day now as we are in that transition period.

The next American administration will be vastly more pro-American and hawkish than the Biden administration. The Biden administration kept going back and forth and never really had a fixed position that anyone could truly trust. On some days America “had Israel’s back” Biden would say. Other days, Biden would threaten an end to US military shipment to Israel unless it acted more favorably toward the civilians in Gaza (fifth link). It must have been hard for the Israelis to craft truly nationalistic policies when Biden’s policies kept shifting. Trump has always been pro-Israel and he midwifed the Abraham Accords to bring peace between Israel and Arab nations when he was president. President-elect Trump is assembling a cabinet and senior White House staff which is very pro-Israeli. The sixth link describes the ardently pro-American positions of some of Trump’s appointees. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is Trump’s appointee to be Ambassador to Israel. Israel will be thrilled with his appointment as Huckabee is so pro-Israel he has in the past stated he is a “Zionist.” The link also places South Dakota’s governor Kristie Noem in that pro-Israeli group as the new Director of Homeland Security (she is the governor of my state). More pro-Israeli cabinet members have also been appointed by Trump. BTW, if the definition of a “Zionist” is that a person believes that the Jews have a Divine right to have a nation of their own in the old Promised Land during the latter days of this age, then I would unabashedly say i am a Zionist too (as anyone who has read my books, articles and blog posts would already know).

Whenever the war between Iran and its proxies versus Israel comes to an end, there will be a renewed focus on building a new Third Temple in Jerusalem. The seventh link relates that a replica of the ancient Ark of the Covenant has been built and displayed in Israel. Under Trump’s guidance, the Abraham Accords may be expanded in such a way that diplomatic relations are established between Israel and more Islamic nations. There were many reports that Israel and Saudi Arabia were on the cusp of establishing diplomatic relations when Hamas launched its treacherous and barbaric invasion of Israel on October 7, 2023. Given the fecklessness of the Biden administration, Saudi Arabia has been making reconciliation efforts with Iran recently. If Iran is foolish enough to launch another major attack against Israel, Israel will almost surely devastate Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities with Trump’s support. Such a development will likely tilt Mideast geopolitics in favor of a Saudi-Israeli recognition. Did you notice that the day after Trump won his bid for the US presidency, Hamas announced it wants an end to its war with Israel? Hezbollah appears to be “on the ropes” in its war vs. Israel. The Houthis in Yemen are still attacking shipping in the Red Sea which diminishes traffic to and from the Suez Canal. If these attacks are still happening in Trump’s administration, it would not surprise me if Trump orders saturation carpet-bombing of the Houthi military sites to bring the Mideast war to an end. When Trump came into office in his first term, the war with ISIS was raging. Trump quickly ended that war with overwhelming military force. Everyone in the Middle East remembers how hawkish Trump can be. This favors an end to the Mideast war when Trump comes into office again. In any settlement, it must be remembered that the Iranian proxy, Hamas, started this war. It would be appropriate if Hamas surrendered and laid down its arms to end the conflict.

Now let’s consider the Ukraine-Russian war. This war has dragged on far too long. It began with a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia almost surely expected a short war, but Ukraine has fought back with incredible tenacity. Ukraine has been able to do so because of an immense amount of military help from the USA and other NATO nations. This war has been extremely costly for both sides. One media report I saw estimated Russia has suffered 600,000 dead and wounded casualties since the war began. If true, that is a staggering figure. It would mean Russia is “scraping the bottom of the barrel” to find enough soldiers to carry on the war. That Russia has had to ask for North Korean soldiers to reinforce Russian battle formations (eighth link) supports the assertion that Russia is almost out of troops. Ukraine has suffered fewer losses, but it has a smaller population base for comparison purposes. Ukraine has also suffered tremendous destruction to its civilian infrastructures. This war could get out of hand. The ninth link has a report that since North Korea is helping Russia militarily, South Korea may decide to send South Korean military forces to reinforce Ukrainian military forces. This is a major escalation and threatens a world war. If North and South Korean military forces begin fighting each other in Ukraine and Russia, it will be hard to keep these nations from fighting each other on the Korean peninsula as well. With Trump in office, I think he will make a major effort to broker an end to this war in Eastern Europe. Trump has the gravitas to make this possible. He will surely tell President Zelenskyy of Ukraine that Ukraine cannot expect to fight Russia “to the last American bullet.” Biden has sent so much American military hardware to Ukraine that it must risk draining the USA’s own military reserves.

I think Trump will suggest to Ukraine and Russia that the fighting be stopped either via an armistice which freezes the forces in place with a ceasefire (an approach that ended the Korean War in the early 1950s and is still in effect today) or a settlement along the lines of the Russian-Finnish “Winter War” about which few Americans have been taught anything I’d guess. Russia invaded Finland many decades ago and, like Ukraine, Finland offered a resolute defense. However, Russian numbers eventually led Finland to agree to a peace agreement in which Russia received roughly 11% of Finnish territory in exchange for an end to the hostilities (tenth link) and the preservation of Finnish sovereignty. Ukraine has fought valiantly, but it cannot hope to defeat a nation so much bigger than itself. I think it will have to be realistic and cede the Crimea and part of the Donbas region to Russia in exchange for a peace treaty. Ukraine can comfort itself that it preserved its independence and the vast majority of its territory.

We will see if Trump has a decisive role to play in ending these two wars. Israel and the USA have a long-standing alliance, but the USA and Ukraine have no actual security agreement as with the NATO nations. However, the possibility of North and South Korean military forces fighting each other on Ukrainian/Russian lands creates a possibility that a new world war could erupt. Long-time readers know I have long seen in Ezekiel 38-39 a prophecy about a final world war that will end our age as Divine rule takes over our earth. I have called that final war a prophesied World War III in my writings; however, there could be a “World War 2.5” if the Ukraine war and the Mideast Wars expand to include more nations. If such a major war occurs, the USA is not militarily ready for it. It is very good for the USA that Trump won the election and that he is making appointments that will vastly improve America’s security situation. If it has to be involved in a major war, the USA will learn very quickly it needs to have leaders that teach the military how to fight and win wars instead of making soldiers focus on which bathrooms and pronouns to use.

HOW TRUMP’S ELECTION MAY AFFECT THE ONGOING MIDEAST AND RUSSIA-UKRAINE WARS

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