The nuclear deal between Iran and the USA and other western powers is accelerating the momentum that is pushing Mideast nations threatened by Iran into a closer alliance of their own. The first link and second link report on the issuance of a new “Cairo Declaration” in which Egypt and Saudi Arabia, two of the largest Sunni nations in the Mideast, have agreed to ally themselves closer together to counter the growing threat from Iran. Their closer alliance will cover both military and economic matters, and it is likely to be expanded to include other Sunni nations before the end of this month. In late August, a follow-up conference will be held in Cairo which will include more Arab Sunni nations. It will be unsurprising if a follow-on declaration proclaims that a larger alliance of Sunni Arab nations has been formed with their military forces tasked to create a coordinated command structure. Unquestionably, it is the strange US-Iranian rapprochement under President Obama and the Iranian nuclear facilities deal negotiated between these nations which is pushing the Sunni Arab nations into a closer military alliance to confront Iran.
The real “wild card” in the restructuring of alliances that is currently occurring in the Mideast is the growing chance of an open alliance between Saudi Arabia and Israel. This is becoming a possibility which the world press is finally discussing more openly. The third link, fourth link and fifth link all examine factors and pressures which are pushing Israeli-Saudi relations toward an open alliance at some point in the future. I suspect that such an alliance is already in effect already in a sub rosa fashion. One of these links reports that Saudi Arabia was already willing to cooperate with an Israeli attack on Iran by giving Israeli warplanes unhindered access to Saudi airspace if such an attack occurred.
If Saudi Arabia and Israel forge an open alliance against Iran and its Mideast proxies, other Sunni Arab nations will surely participate in such an alliance. Indeed, I think the Sunni nations would greatly welcome an alliance with a reliably anti-Iranian nuclear and conventional power–which Israel is–now that the USA has become an unreliable and unpredictable partner in the region. Israel hasn’t formally acknowledged that it is a nuclear power, but it has long been believed that Israel has a significant number of nuclear weapons of various sizes in its inventory. I certainly agree with that belief.
However, there is another reason for Sunni Arab nations and Israel being pushed together as allies. The growing threat of ISIL/ISIS, which President Obama once foolishly dismissed as a “B-team” threat, is also pushing Israel and regional Sunni powers together as ISIL/ISIS represents a threat to all Sunni Arab governments via its self-proclamation to be a “caliphate” that should rule all Muslims. The sixth link and seventh link document that Israel and its Arab Sunni neighbors are cooperating ever-closer in an alliance vs. ISIL/ISIS, and one link reports that Israel military drones have already assisted the Jordanian military by conducting reconnaissance missions against ISIL/ISIS from Jordanian bases. The final link is most revealing, as it contains the content of an interview with a Mideast analyst, whose name indicates he is a Muslim. He asserts that “the cooperation now between the Israeli army and most of the Arab regimes of the area is now very, very close.” It sounds like an Israeli-Arab Sunni military alliance already exists; it is just awaiting the proper moment to be formally announced to the world. I suspect that some kind of peace agreement between the Israelis and Palestinians would facilitate such an announcement. Perhaps such an agreement will feature a Palestinian “state” which has limited autonomy and is disarmed with the “West Bank” portion being supervised by a joint Saudi/Jordanian force and the Gaza portion supervised by an Egyptian military force. Such an arrangement would suppress activities by both Iran and ISIL/ISIS in Palestinian regions, which would serve common Israeli, Egyptian, Saudi and Jordanian interests very nicely.
This blog has been commenting on the growing alliance between Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan for several years. It is now so obvious that the world’s media is now writing about it as well.