Although many media reports have tried to “spin” the recent talks between western nations and Iran as “progress,” the reality is the chances of war are growing closer. The first two links below peel away the “fudge factor” in many media articles and relate what is really happening.
The first link, an analysis of the crisis from www.Stratfor.com has much information you need to know, but will not receive amid all the “fluff” stories seen on the establishment TV “news” media. I strongly urge all readers to read this Stratfor analysis in the first link below. Stratfor reports that two apparently-deliberate “leaks” have changed the geopolitical game re: Iran. The first is the leaked report of an IAEA report which acknowledges that “Iran was much more advanced in its nuclear program than the IAEA had thought previously.” The second was that the real purpose of Israeli Prime Minister’s “secret” trip to Russia was to give to the Russians the names of Russian nuclear engineers who had been caught working on Iranian nuclear programs. Stratfor states that “worst-case assumptions must now be assumed. The Iranians are in fact working rapidly toward a weapon…” The report states [correctly I believe] that “we are moving toward a decisive moment with Iran.” It is also clear that any reports of Russian cooperation in additional international economic sanctions are premature. Russia hasn’t formally agreed to cooperate with any such sanctions. As the report also notes, these two “official leaks” reveal to the Russians and Iranians that the inner circles of Iran’s nuclear programs have been penetrated by western and Israeli intelligence services more than either Russia or Iran realized.
Obviously, any Russian nuclear engineers working in Iran were there with the full approval of Vladimir Putin and Russian government agencies. The West wanted Russia to realize that Russian deceptions of the West on Russia’s involvement with Iran’s nuclear program have been exposed. Iran is becoming the nexus of many international flashpoints involving the Mideast, Latin America, Afghanistan, China, etc. The joint American-Israeli confrontation of Russia re: Iran is likely a last effort to settle the issue of the Iranian nuclear program without war. If war occurs, Stratfor predicts it will be “broad-based” and “extensive.” One positive aspect of this development is that President Obama may be realizing that the Israelis are a vital American ally after all, and Obama may further now realize the Russians were treating Obama as a weak, gullible leader who could easily be duped. Stratfor concludes by suggesting that Russia and Iran are not “getting the message yet,” and that Obama’s reputation for being a weak leader will actually force him to take aggressive action to solve his image problem. Obama’s profound failure to win the Olympics for Chicago in Copenhagen indicates Obama has little gravitas in global geopolitics right now. Decisive military action would help dispel that perception of Obama as a weak leader. I’ve also included an analysis of the current Iranian crisis by John Bolton, former US Ambassador to the UN as the second link below.
However, the US military is already strained to the limit, especially its ground forces. A war with Iran could give Obama the “cover” he needs to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan (where they are very isolated and surrounded by enemies). He could argue that they are needed elsewhere (which would be true). I do disagree with Stratfor’s excellent analysis in one respect. Stratfor thinks Russia and Iran have not yet “gotten the message” how close the situation is to open conflict. I think both Russia and Iran are well aware of this. Indeed, I think they are eager for a limited military conflict with the West and the Israelis. I believe Russia has placed upgraded air defense systems in Iran and is eager to test their capabilities against Western aircraft and cruise missiles. Russian-Iranian war efforts will also go on the offensive, especially against US Navy ships in the Persian Gulf. If the Russians and Chinese have placed supersonic “sizzler” cruise missiles on the Iranian side of the Persian Gulf, they may be eager to fire them against US ships in wartime conditions. If they work well against US Navy ships, we can expect a sooner timetable for the prophesied Ezekiel 38-39 global war of Russia, China, Iran, et al. because they will gain confidence that they can eliminate US aircraft carriers in the first phase of a world war. If the sizzlers are fired against US ships and shot down by carrier defense systems, Russia, China and Iran will have to “go back to the drawing board” and the prophesied Ezekiel 38-39 war will be delayed. That prophecy clearly states that Russia, China, Iran and their allies will start that war. They do not want to start that war until they believe that they can win it. If Russia and China have placed their top-of-the-line weapons in Iran to use against US and Israeli attackers, they are hoping for a “surrogate war” against the USA and the West in the Persian Gulf region.
Consider another interesting possibility. A western attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities could also result in Iran sinking oil tankers, firing missiles at Saudi oil facilities, etc. This could drastically raise the price of oil. The third link reports the little-realized fact that Russia is now the top oil producer in the world as it has overtaken Saudi Arabia. A war in the Persian Gulf which skyrockets the price of oil will be enormously beneficial to Russia’s financial balance sheet. That is one more reason Russia may be eager for a “limited” Persian Gulf War. However, if Iran activates Hezbollah “sleeper cells” all over Europe and North America to launch suicide attacks on shopping malls, tourist theme parks, Christian Churches and Jewish synagogues, etc., the war may spiral into a bigger problem than any of the involved nations ever wanted. Russia figures it has much to gain by such a war so its position is looking at the USA and Iran and saying “Let’s you and him fight.” Russia plans to stay on the sidelines in such a war, let the USA consume more of its military strength, and watch its own oil revenues head for the moon. Given these outcomes, why should Russia want to prevent a Persian Gulf War? If I were Putin, that is how I’d look at this crisis.
The last link is a recommendation from the Red Cross website that Americans should consider having a two-week supply of food, water, etc. on hand in their homes in the event of a crisis, and it warns specifically against a “chemical or radiological” event. If a Persian Gulf War erupts, such “events” are possible if Iran does activate sleeper cells of terrorists on American soil. Things could get ugly folks! I urge you to read the Red Cross list of emergency supplies and get yourself and/or your family ready. The Red Cross page also warns that Americans may have to “shelter in place” in an emergency situation. That means you will not be allowed to leave your home. You will have to “get by” with what you have on hand. Do you have the ability to last at least two weeks with the supplies you have on hand?