A reader sent the first link below that Taiwan is reporting that China is building its first aircraft carrier. Reportedly, the Chinese are having difficulties in getting it built and it may not be completed until 2012 or later. The report states that “Taiwanese military experts expect the People’s Liberation Army to take at least ten years to have its first operating carrier group complete with carrier-based fighters and other warships.” The second link (from the BBC) cites a Hong Kong report that the Chinese carrier will be built by 2010. The first link also cites a Taiwanese analyst as saying the USA, Taiwan and Japan will need to “overhaul their military strategies” when the Chinese carrier is deployed in approximately ten years.
Why would it take ten years to have an operating carrier battle group if the carrier is built by 2012 or soon afterward? The answer has to do with the complexity of training an entire carrier battle group. One needs to train pilots to make carrier take-offs and landings, the defensive escort vessels’ crews need to be trained extensively to properly screen and defend an aircraft carrier, a sophisticated defensive network like the American AEGIS system needs to be installed on the carrier and its escort vessels, etc. Carrier tactics take some time to learn and perfect. The American Navy are the “pros” in operating aircraft battle groups. It would take China a long time to make a single carrier group anywhere near the equal of any American aircraft carrier battle group.
Personally, I think the Chinese carrier is being built as a decoy to misdirect western military planners into thinking that China will not be a military threat for at least ten years. I think many readers are familiar with the maxim that “Generals are always preparing to fight the last war.” In other words, it is typical of military leaders to think “inside the box” and assume that the next war will be like the last one. An example of this would be the US military planners who initially thought battleships would be the primary naval weapon of World War II because that was their role in World War I. Such planners were surprised when they quickly realized that battleships were obsolete and aircraft carriers would really be the primary naval weapon in World War II. Today, U.S. military planners now assume that aircraft carriers will be the primary naval weapon in World War III. Since America has 11 aircraft carrier battle groups (far more than other nations), America assumes its Navy is unassailable. The U.S. Navy also thought it was safe and unassailable in the Pacific Theater right up to the early hours of December 7, 1941.
Since China is very mindful of the war doctrine of Sun-Tzu, I’m sure there is something in that famous military thinker’s book, The Art of War, which advises that one should deceive an enemy re: one’s true intentions about tactical war plans. Since China knows American war planners are fixated on aircraft carriers as the primary determinant of naval power, China is slowly getting around to building one in order to convince American planners that China is emulating American strategy and is decades away from matching American naval power. However, I think the Chinese carrier under construction is a ruse to hide China’s real tactical plans for fighting the U.S. Navy in World War III.
China has immense financial reserves right now, so if they really wanted to build aircraft carriers, they could be building a dozen of them. Their carrier-building effort has been desultory at best. This is evidence that China isn’t really focused on building aircraft carriers. China has been pouring its resources into building a modern fleet of surface ships and submarines which will fire waves of cruise missiles at U.S. aircraft carriers in order to overwhelm their defenses and sink them. Previous blogs have documented that China is deploying the Russian-built “sizzler” supersonic cruise missile in its naval warships. That cruise missile is designed specifically to sink U.S. aircraft carriers. Russia and China are also investing resources into building ballistic missiles to fire at aircraft carrier battle groups. China‘s funding priorities reveal its real war-fighting strategy. While American military planners are fixated on aircraft carriers, the new Chinese warships are being built with offensive weaponry to attack aircraft carriers. China’s obvious reluctance to commit resources to building carriers tells me that China does not think carriers will be survivable in World War III, and therefore carriers are not a priority for their navy. When a Chinese attack submarine successfully stalked an American aircraft carrier not long ago and surfaced within easy “kill” range of the carrier, that also revealed that China is already having its submarine commanders practice stalking American carriers (in order to launch waves of cruise missiles at U.S. carriers in the opening minutes of a future World War III). I’ll bet the Chinese general staff was not pleased that the captain of that Chinese submarine “spilled the beans” by surfacing so close to the U.S. carrier. Also, if the Chinese are not building new classes of surface ships whose armament and design is defensive in nature in order to protect future carriers, it strongly indicates that this Chinese carrier project is a decoy to dupe U.S. war planners about their true intentions. Carriers are just big “sitting ducks” without defensive screening vessels.
Ezekiel 38 prophesies that Russia, China, Iran and their allies (the “Gog Magog alliance”) will start World War III at the end of our age by attacking the nations of the modern ten tribes of Israel—the USA, the UK, Scandinavia, much of Europe, Australia, Canada, New Zealand—and their allies. [It is easy to document that the modern Israelis are called “Judah” in biblical prophecies, not “Israel.” A review of my books, articles and speeches at this website will confirm that the western world is led by the major nations of the ten tribes of Israel which have grown into the large and major nations that Hosea 1:10 and Genesis 48:14-28 prophesied they would become by the latter days of our age.] Ezekiel 38:10-12 prophesies that the attack of the Gog-Magog alliance will catch the nations of the latter-day house of Israel flat-footed. It will be a reprise of the surprise “Pearl Harbor” attack which started World War II. Ezekiel 38:11 likens the latter-day nations of the West to “unwalled villages” without bars or gates. Since the city walls and gates were the primary defensive weapons in ancient times, a city without them was unprepared for war and ripe for attack. That will be the condition of the Western nations in the latter days when World War III starts. The King James Version of the Bible states in Ezekiel 38:11 that the latter-day nations of “Israel” (i.e. the Western nations) will be dwelling “safely” when they are attacked. The Hebrew word, “betach,” translated “safely” in the KJV, is also translated “carelessly” elsewhere in the KJV. Since the prophecy indicates these nations will be invaded in a surprise attack, the word “carelessly” would fit this prophetic context much better.
My viewpoint is that just as Japan started World War II by attacking the American battleships at Pearl Harbor, the Russians and Chinese will start World War III by launching unexpected salvos of subsonic and supersonic cruise missiles at U.S. aircraft carriers from relatively close range. These cruise missiles could also be simultaneously fired from warplanes whose missions were made to appear “routine” and by secretly-armed merchant ships whose schedule is timed to have them in the proximity of U.S. carriers when the opening salvos get fired. The Japanese succeeded in knocking out every U.S. battleship in the opening blow of World War II. Let’s hope the Russians and Chinese don’t succeed in knocking out every U.S. carrier in the opening minutes of the first battle of World War III. Ezekiel 38 has already given us an advance warning. I wonder if any American or western war planners are paying attention?