A NEW THREAT TO NATO

In recent months, there have been media articles about two threats to the continuing existence of NATO as we have known it since the end of World War II. NATO has been an incredibly successful alliance; having deterred the Soviet Union/Russia from attacking the Western world and the European democracies. In one major aspect, NATO has recently gotten stronger. For decades after World War II, Eastern European nations were in the Warsaw Pact as vassals of the Soviet Union while Western European nations were allied to the USA and Canada within NATO. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the Eastern European nations that had been under Soviet dominion in the Warsaw Pact fairly quickly applied for (and received) NATO membership. Sweden and Finland also joined NATO recently, greatly dismaying Russia. In this expansion, NATO has many more nations allied under its banner than it once had. However, danger for the alliance does exist.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, there were worries that an under-prepared NATO might be invaded next by Russia. In his first term, President Trump pressured European nations to increase their defense budgets due to the danger they faced from Russia. Most NATO nations ignored him. When Russia invaded Ukraine, Trump’s warnings proved to be well-advised. The USA and NATO nations have provided an immense amount of war material to Ukraine even as they are struggling to get their own domestic armaments industries upgraded to produce more weapons and do it quickly. A Russian invasion of Europe was the first threat faced by NATO in recent years. This danger still exists if the Russia-Ukraine war expands to include more nations.

Then a second threat emerged with warnings that NATO might even disband. President Trump, in his current term of office, warned that European nations needed to devote at least 3% of their national GNP to military spending. He is right, but various European heads-of-state didn’t appreciate being reminded that their neglect regarding military spending needs jeopardized their national security. There were warnings in various media articles that President Trump might take the USA out of NATO, or that Trump might defend only those European NATO members who “did their fair share” in military spending. European leaders huddled in anxious conferences about how to help Ukraine and how to provide for their collective defense if Trump did take the USA out of NATO. This is a real threat to NATO’s existence, but. personally, I don’t think the USA will leave NATO. Trump’s proddings have caused many European NATO nations to boost their military spending. Poland and the Baltic states have especially increased their defense spending. I saw one TV segment that reported Poland and Estonia were boosting their military spending to 5% of their national GNPs. Poland is especially serious about preparing for its national defense and it has been greatly increasing its store of weaponry and even announcing plans that all military-age men would be subject to military training so they could be activated quickly in the event of a Russian invasion (previous post).

Now a third threat has emerged to threaten the stability of NATO. To put it simply: Turkey is showing signs of “going rogue.” Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the President of Turkey, has acted as if he had one foot in NATO and the other foot in Russia’s camp. Erdogan commands the largest European army in NATO and Turkey has long been an important part of the NATO alliance. It occupies a strategic position in its control of the Bosporus and Dardanelles, key choke points between the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea. Russia can be blocked from naval access to the Mediterranean Sea by its Black Sea fleet if Turkey stays in NATO. However, Turkey also bought a sophisticated Russian air defense system for its own use. The problem is that the Russian air defense system was designed to shoot down NATO warplanes, and Turkey was buying this anti-NATO technology. Turkey seems to have two minds: one part is with NATO and one part is not.

The problems within Turkey have recently come to a head. A national election is looming in Turkey and Erdogan appeared to be vulnerable to an election defeat at the hands of the mayor of Istanbul, a leader in the opposition party. In a heavy-handed manner, Erdogan had his main political opponent jailed on what much of the world saw as trumped-up charges designed to keep him from running vs. Erdogan. Erdogan’s forces also dug into 30 year-old files and came up with what appeared to be a contrived case that the Istanbul mayor didn’t really have a college degree so he was ineligible to run against Erdogan (Turkey requires a college degree for individuals to run for president). The jailing of his primary election opponent let loose a storm of protests inside Turkey. The first three links (1, 2, 3) describe the massive protests as well as details about Erdogan’s government detaining and expelling foreign media personnel who covered the protests. Domestic media personnel were also detained for even reporting about the mass protests. Turkey is looking less like a genuinely democratic nation. There are various analysts who have asserted Erdogan is trying to rig the next election by removing his credible opponents via a Turkish form of “lawfare.” It is a valid question if Turkey can stay in NATO if Erdogan repudiates democracy itself. NATO is supposed to be an alliance of western democracies. What happens if one of its members forsakes democracy?

The fourth link is an analysis concerning the increasingly anti-Israel stance taken by Erdogan. The fifth link focuses on Erdogan’s public advocacy of a position to “destroy Israel.” This increasingly hostile stance toward Israel makes Erdogan sound much like Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas. This also causes Turkey to become a threat to NATO’s stability because many of the NATO nations do not share Erdogan’s hostile attitude toward Israel. Erdogan has even begun to echo Iran’s animus toward the USA (sixth link). Erdogan is not sounding like a reliable member of NATO, to say the least. The fact that Turkey’s allegiance to NATO is in doubt is a major threat to the stability of NATO itself, and this threat should not be underestimated. If Turkey leaves NATO, all the other nations will need to increase their military spending even more than they have intended. There is another danger. Turkey and Greece have historically been enemies. If Turkey leaves NATO, it is no longer bound to be an ally of Greece. If Turkey were to attack Greece, Greece could invoke Article 5 of the NATO charter, causing a war between Turkey and all the NATO nations. If Turkey leaves NATO, I also expect NATO would place numerous anti-ship missile batteries in the Greek Islands to guard against Russian naval threats coming out of the Black Sea. Turkey’s gradual departure from NATO’s values and policies is likely the biggest current risk to NATO.

My current view is that Turkey will not leave NATO. I think many NATO leaders are hoping Erdogan is removed from power in the next election so Turkey can again be a reliable ally; however, I have another reason for this viewpoint that comes from biblical prophecy. As most readers already know, I believe we are living in the biblically-prophesied “latter days” and that this can be proven to be true. The evidence for that conclusion is in my article, Are We Living in the Biblical Latter Days? One of the primary prophecies for the latter days is Ezekiel 38 (see verses 8 and 16). This chapter lists the two major alliances in our modern world: the eastern alliance of Russia, China, Iran and their allies and the NATO/Western nations and their allies around the world. The eastern alliance led by Russia, China and Iran is prophesied to attack the alliance led by NATO which includes the latter-day tribes of Israel. Note the listing of alliances in Ezekiel 38:1-8. In the listing of nations allied with Russia, China and Iran, there is not a single nation descended from Abraham listed in that alliance. This strongly infers that all the nations descended from Abraham will be in the alliance which is attacked in the latter days. This includes the descendants of Jacob/Israel, Ishmael, Esau/Edom, the sons of Abraham and Keturah and the sons of Abraham and his concubines (Genesis 25:1-6). The numerous descendants of Abraham were to become “many nations,” (Genesis 17:1-7). The modern descendants of Abraham include many nations in Europe, the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the Jews (the House of Judah) the Arabs, and many more. How does this affect the Turks?

I believe the evidence indicates that Turkey is also descended from Abraham via the modern descendants of the union of Rebekah and Isaac. The two sons of this union were Jacob and Esau. Jacob’s descendants became the very numerous tribes of Israel who had the “birthright” promise. The descendants of Esau (called Edomites, Genesis 36:1) were known by their clan names (Genesis 36). One of the most prominent clan names of Esau’s descendants is the name: Teman (see verses 11,15 and 42 and verse 34 indicates the entire land of Esau’s descendants may have once been called “The land of Temani.” For centuries prior to our time, the Turks controlled the Ottoman Empire, which was quite large at its peak. The consonants of “Ottoman” (TT-M-N) are the same as the those for Teman (T-M-N), indicating the Turks are the descendants of the Edomites with their name little changed over the millennia. Since the Edomites/Temani are not listed in the Gog-Magog roster of nations in Ezekiel 38:1-6, it argues that they will not be allies of Russia, China and Iran in the great war at the end of this age. For this reason, it is my belief that Turkey will remain in the alliance led by the sons of Abraham.

Much more about the ethnic connections between ancient and modern nations is included in my research paper: What Ezekiel 38-39 Reveals about a Future World War III. The Bible also has latter-day prophecies about the United States of America, but the Bible does not use any the modern names for Americans in its prophecies. The revelations about America’s destiny in latter-day prophecies is detailed in my article, The United States of America in Biblical Prophecy. For those desiring an in-depth analysis of the ancient names for modern nations and their respective roles in latter day prophecies, you will be able to obtain that information at the home page of my website in my four-book set on the hidden history of the Ten Tribes of Israel and in my E-book on the same topic.

A NEW THREAT TO NATO

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